Apple’s confirmed September 9, 2026 event, branded “Surprise and Shine,” serves as the main catalyst behind the 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release this year. Supply-chain reports and analyst consensus, including from Mark Gurman, indicate the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max will launch alongside a new foldable model in the traditional fall window, following Apple’s long-standing post-Labor Day cadence despite ongoing memory and chip shortages. This split-launch approach defers only the base iPhone 18 and lower-tier variants to spring 2027. With the keynote just days away and pre-orders expected shortly after, traders see minimal realistic risk of delay from technical issues or regulatory hurdles, though last-minute component constraints remain a narrow uncertainty.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoApple rilascerà iPhone 18 nel 2026?
Apple rilascerà iPhone 18 nel 2026?
99% probabilità
$175,807 Vol.
$175,807 Vol.
31 dic 2026
99% probabilità
$175,807 Vol.
$175,807 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s confirmed September 9, 2026 event, branded “Surprise and Shine,” serves as the main catalyst behind the 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release this year. Supply-chain reports and analyst consensus, including from Mark Gurman, indicate the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max will launch alongside a new foldable model in the traditional fall window, following Apple’s long-standing post-Labor Day cadence despite ongoing memory and chip shortages. This split-launch approach defers only the base iPhone 18 and lower-tier variants to spring 2027. With the keynote just days away and pre-orders expected shortly after, traders see minimal realistic risk of delay from technical issues or regulatory hurdles, though last-minute component constraints remain a narrow uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$175,807Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s confirmed September 9, 2026 event, branded “Surprise and Shine,” serves as the main catalyst behind the 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release this year. Supply-chain reports and analyst consensus, including from Mark Gurman, indicate the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max will launch alongside a new foldable model in the traditional fall window, following Apple’s long-standing post-Labor Day cadence despite ongoing memory and chip shortages. This split-launch approach defers only the base iPhone 18 and lower-tier variants to spring 2027. With the keynote just days away and pre-orders expected shortly after, traders see minimal realistic risk of delay from technical issues or regulatory hurdles, though last-minute component constraints remain a narrow uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$175,807Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Apple’s confirmed September 9, 2026 event, branded “Surprise and Shine,” serves as the main catalyst behind the 98.9% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release this year. Supply-chain reports and analyst consensus, including from Mark Gurman, indicate the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max will launch alongside a new foldable model in the traditional fall window, following Apple’s long-standing post-Labor Day cadence despite ongoing memory and chip shortages. This split-launch approach defers only the base iPhone 18 and lower-tier variants to spring 2027. With the keynote just days away and pre-orders expected shortly after, traders see minimal realistic risk of delay from technical issues or regulatory hurdles, though last-minute component constraints remain a narrow uncertainty.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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