Anthropic's early September release of Claude Fable 5.1 and restricted Mythos 5.1 drove recent leaderboard gains, posting the highest scores yet on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and strong results on Terminal-Bench and agentic evaluations. OpenAI quickly followed with GPT-6 Astra on September 3, matching or approaching those levels on several reasoning and coding benchmarks while emphasizing computer-use capabilities. The frontier remains fluid as labs iterate rapidly on large language models, with Google, xAI, Meta, and open-weight providers like Z.ai and DeepSeek releasing competitive updates that influence composite rankings across GPQA, SWE-bench, and similar metrics. Traders watch for further launches and benchmark updates through year-end that could shift which company's model holds the top position.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuali aziende avranno un modello di IA n. 1 entro il 31 dicembre?
Quali aziende avranno un modello di IA n. 1 entro il 31 dicembre?
$143,952 Vol.
31 dic 2026
OpenAI
31%
23%
xAI
13%
Alibaba
12%
Z.ai
11%
Meta
11%
Moonshot
9%
ByteDance
8%
Baidu
7%
DeepSeek
6%
Microsoft
5%
Amazon
3%
Mistral
3%
Meituan
3%
$143,952 Vol.
OpenAI
$27,617 Vol.
31%
$18,564 Vol.
23%
xAI
$9,098 Vol.
13%
Alibaba
$3,589 Vol.
12%
Z.ai
$5,381 Vol.
11%
Meta
$15,798 Vol.
11%
Moonshot
$10,008 Vol.
9%
ByteDance
$2,936 Vol.
8%
Baidu
$1,981 Vol.
7%
DeepSeek
$23,571 Vol.
6%
Microsoft
$5,191 Vol.
5%
Amazon
$6,422 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$10,316 Vol.
3%
Meituan
$3,480 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's early September release of Claude Fable 5.1 and restricted Mythos 5.1 drove recent leaderboard gains, posting the highest scores yet on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and strong results on Terminal-Bench and agentic evaluations. OpenAI quickly followed with GPT-6 Astra on September 3, matching or approaching those levels on several reasoning and coding benchmarks while emphasizing computer-use capabilities. The frontier remains fluid as labs iterate rapidly on large language models, with Google, xAI, Meta, and open-weight providers like Z.ai and DeepSeek releasing competitive updates that influence composite rankings across GPQA, SWE-bench, and similar metrics. Traders watch for further launches and benchmark updates through year-end that could shift which company's model holds the top position.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Volume
$143,952Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's early September release of Claude Fable 5.1 and restricted Mythos 5.1 drove recent leaderboard gains, posting the highest scores yet on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and strong results on Terminal-Bench and agentic evaluations. OpenAI quickly followed with GPT-6 Astra on September 3, matching or approaching those levels on several reasoning and coding benchmarks while emphasizing computer-use capabilities. The frontier remains fluid as labs iterate rapidly on large language models, with Google, xAI, Meta, and open-weight providers like Z.ai and DeepSeek releasing competitive updates that influence composite rankings across GPQA, SWE-bench, and similar metrics. Traders watch for further launches and benchmark updates through year-end that could shift which company's model holds the top position.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$143,952Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's early September release of Claude Fable 5.1 and restricted Mythos 5.1 drove recent leaderboard gains, posting the highest scores yet on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and strong results on Terminal-Bench and agentic evaluations. OpenAI quickly followed with GPT-6 Astra on September 3, matching or approaching those levels on several reasoning and coding benchmarks while emphasizing computer-use capabilities. The frontier remains fluid as labs iterate rapidly on large language models, with Google, xAI, Meta, and open-weight providers like Z.ai and DeepSeek releasing competitive updates that influence composite rankings across GPQA, SWE-bench, and similar metrics. Traders watch for further launches and benchmark updates through year-end that could shift which company's model holds the top position.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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