Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-breaking $355–360 million domestic opening weekend has set an exceptionally high bar, driving trader consensus toward a sub-$180 million second weekend at 83% implied probability. Typical superhero sequels experience 50–60% drops after massive debuts due to audience front-loading, and this holds despite strong early word-of-mouth, Tom Holland’s star power, and robust global performance that pushed the film past $1 billion worldwide within days. Positive critic and audience scores, alongside limited direct competition this frame, could support better-than-average legs, but historical MCU patterns and the sheer scale of the opening favor steeper declines. This weekend’s actual holds will provide the next key data point for momentum shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office
<180m 84%
180-190 milioni 11%
190-200m 5%
210-220 milioni 3.4%
$16,873 Vol.
$16,873 Vol.
9 ago 2026
<180m
84%
180-190 milioni
11%
190-200m
5%
200-210 milioni
1%
210-220 milioni
3%
220 milioni+
2%
<180m 84%
180-190 milioni 11%
190-200m 5%
210-220 milioni 3.4%
$16,873 Vol.
$16,873 Vol.
9 ago 2026
<180m
$9,745 Vol.
84%
180-190 milioni
$1,037 Vol.
11%
190-200m
$1,319 Vol.
5%
200-210 milioni
$994 Vol.
1%
210-220 milioni
$1,224 Vol.
3%
220 milioni+
$2,554 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-breaking $355–360 million domestic opening weekend has set an exceptionally high bar, driving trader consensus toward a sub-$180 million second weekend at 83% implied probability. Typical superhero sequels experience 50–60% drops after massive debuts due to audience front-loading, and this holds despite strong early word-of-mouth, Tom Holland’s star power, and robust global performance that pushed the film past $1 billion worldwide within days. Positive critic and audience scores, alongside limited direct competition this frame, could support better-than-average legs, but historical MCU patterns and the sheer scale of the opening favor steeper declines. This weekend’s actual holds will provide the next key data point for momentum shifts.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercato aperto: Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Volume
$16,873Data di fine
9 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-breaking $355–360 million domestic opening weekend has set an exceptionally high bar, driving trader consensus toward a sub-$180 million second weekend at 83% implied probability. Typical superhero sequels experience 50–60% drops after massive debuts due to audience front-loading, and this holds despite strong early word-of-mouth, Tom Holland’s star power, and robust global performance that pushed the film past $1 billion worldwide within days. Positive critic and audience scores, alongside limited direct competition this frame, could support better-than-average legs, but historical MCU patterns and the sheer scale of the opening favor steeper declines. This weekend’s actual holds will provide the next key data point for momentum shifts.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 7 - 9) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$16,873Data di fine
9 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 3, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record-breaking $355–360 million domestic opening weekend has set an exceptionally high bar, driving trader consensus toward a sub-$180 million second weekend at 83% implied probability. Typical superhero sequels experience 50–60% drops after massive debuts due to audience front-loading, and this holds despite strong early word-of-mouth, Tom Holland’s star power, and robust global performance that pushed the film past $1 billion worldwide within days. Positive critic and audience scores, alongside limited direct competition this frame, could support better-than-average legs, but historical MCU patterns and the sheer scale of the opening favor steeper declines. This weekend’s actual holds will provide the next key data point for momentum shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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