Braeden Caley, the Liberal nominee and former deputy chief of staff to Prime Minister Mark Carney, holds overwhelming trader support at 97.9% for the August 31, 2026, federal by-election in North Vancouver—Capilano. The seat became vacant after longtime Liberal MP Jonathan Wilkinson resigned for a diplomatic posting, preserving the riding’s recent Liberal history under a well-connected party insider with over two decades of federal experience. Conservative challenger Stephen Curran, a repeat local candidate, trails at 1.1% amid limited polling momentum. Other declared or potential contenders register negligible implied probabilities. A commanding position could face pressure only from major unforeseen developments such as candidate withdrawal, damaging late revelations, or unusually high turnout shifts among specific voter blocs before advance polls open August 21–24.