Strong recent U.S. GDP readings and broad forecaster consensus underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative annual growth in 2026. Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized pace in Q2 2026 and 2.1% in Q1, while private-sector projections cluster between 1.8% and 2.5% for the full year, supported by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital expenditures, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.4%. Monetary policy remains on hold amid sticky core inflation, yet no major contractionary signals have emerged. Tail risks include sharper Middle East supply shocks that could elevate energy prices and inflation, or unanticipated data revisions that might tip quarterly readings negative, though these scenarios remain low-probability given current momentum.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCrescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Crescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Sì
4% probabilità
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
29 gen 2027
Sì
4% probabilità
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
29 gen 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong recent U.S. GDP readings and broad forecaster consensus underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative annual growth in 2026. Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized pace in Q2 2026 and 2.1% in Q1, while private-sector projections cluster between 1.8% and 2.5% for the full year, supported by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital expenditures, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.4%. Monetary policy remains on hold amid sticky core inflation, yet no major contractionary signals have emerged. Tail risks include sharper Middle East supply shocks that could elevate energy prices and inflation, or unanticipated data revisions that might tip quarterly readings negative, though these scenarios remain low-probability given current momentum.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$32,234Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong recent U.S. GDP readings and broad forecaster consensus underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative annual growth in 2026. Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized pace in Q2 2026 and 2.1% in Q1, while private-sector projections cluster between 1.8% and 2.5% for the full year, supported by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital expenditures, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.4%. Monetary policy remains on hold amid sticky core inflation, yet no major contractionary signals have emerged. Tail risks include sharper Middle East supply shocks that could elevate energy prices and inflation, or unanticipated data revisions that might tip quarterly readings negative, though these scenarios remain low-probability given current momentum.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$32,234Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong recent U.S. GDP readings and broad forecaster consensus underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative annual growth in 2026. Real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized pace in Q2 2026 and 2.1% in Q1, while private-sector projections cluster between 1.8% and 2.5% for the full year, supported by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital expenditures, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.4%. Monetary policy remains on hold amid sticky core inflation, yet no major contractionary signals have emerged. Tail risks include sharper Middle East supply shocks that could elevate energy prices and inflation, or unanticipated data revisions that might tip quarterly readings negative, though these scenarios remain low-probability given current momentum.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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