Forecast models from sources like the National Meteorological Center and international ensembles indicate Shanghai's overnight minimum on August 12 will likely settle between 26–27°C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. Persistent subtropical moisture, scattered thundershowers, and elevated humidity are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, while the urban heat island effect further moderates lows compared to rural baselines. Recent days have featured similar patterns with measured minima around 26–28°C amid overcast skies and light winds, reducing the chance of sharper drops. Model consensus shows only modest day-to-day variability in steering flow and precipitation timing, which explains why 25°C and 28°C hold smaller shares. Updated runs ahead of the 12th, particularly evening sounding data and cloud-cover adjustments, will be the key near-term drivers of any shifts in trader positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Shanghai il 12 agosto?
La temperatura più bassa a Shanghai il 12 agosto?
27°C 41%
26°C 35%
25°C 9%
28°C 9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
12 ago 2026
21°C o inferiore
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
2%
24°C
6%
25°C
9%
26°C
35%
27°C
41%
28°C
9%
29°C
4%
30°C
<1%
31°C o superiore
<1%
27°C 41%
26°C 35%
25°C 9%
28°C 9%
NUOVO
NUOVO
12 ago 2026
21°C o inferiore
$52 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$54 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$18 Vol.
2%
24°C
$70 Vol.
6%
25°C
$40 Vol.
9%
26°C
$354 Vol.
35%
27°C
$114 Vol.
41%
28°C
$36 Vol.
9%
29°C
$37 Vol.
4%
30°C
$38 Vol.
<1%
31°C o superiore
$42 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like the National Meteorological Center and international ensembles indicate Shanghai's overnight minimum on August 12 will likely settle between 26–27°C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. Persistent subtropical moisture, scattered thundershowers, and elevated humidity are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, while the urban heat island effect further moderates lows compared to rural baselines. Recent days have featured similar patterns with measured minima around 26–28°C amid overcast skies and light winds, reducing the chance of sharper drops. Model consensus shows only modest day-to-day variability in steering flow and precipitation timing, which explains why 25°C and 28°C hold smaller shares. Updated runs ahead of the 12th, particularly evening sounding data and cloud-cover adjustments, will be the key near-term drivers of any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$855Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources like the National Meteorological Center and international ensembles indicate Shanghai's overnight minimum on August 12 will likely settle between 26–27°C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. Persistent subtropical moisture, scattered thundershowers, and elevated humidity are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, while the urban heat island effect further moderates lows compared to rural baselines. Recent days have featured similar patterns with measured minima around 26–28°C amid overcast skies and light winds, reducing the chance of sharper drops. Model consensus shows only modest day-to-day variability in steering flow and precipitation timing, which explains why 25°C and 28°C hold smaller shares. Updated runs ahead of the 12th, particularly evening sounding data and cloud-cover adjustments, will be the key near-term drivers of any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$855Data di fine
12 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 10, 2026, 12:31 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources like the National Meteorological Center and international ensembles indicate Shanghai's overnight minimum on August 12 will likely settle between 26–27°C, aligning with the closely matched market-implied probabilities for those outcomes. Persistent subtropical moisture, scattered thundershowers, and elevated humidity are limiting nocturnal radiative cooling, while the urban heat island effect further moderates lows compared to rural baselines. Recent days have featured similar patterns with measured minima around 26–28°C amid overcast skies and light winds, reducing the chance of sharper drops. Model consensus shows only modest day-to-day variability in steering flow and precipitation timing, which explains why 25°C and 28°C hold smaller shares. Updated runs ahead of the 12th, particularly evening sounding data and cloud-cover adjustments, will be the key near-term drivers of any shifts in trader positioning.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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