Recent showers and thunderstorms driven by a broad low-pressure trough over the South China Sea kept overnight radiative cooling limited in Hong Kong on August 31, supporting a minimum near 26–27 °C at the Observatory. This aligns with late-August climatology, where typical daily minima range 25–27 °C amid high humidity (75–95 %) and light northerly winds. Model consensus and official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory consistently projected a low of 27 °C, with only modest variability from localized convective activity. The market’s strong weighting toward 26 °C reflects trader assessment of these verified conditions and the narrow historical range for the date, while lower-probability outcomes below 24 °C or above 30 °C remain unlikely given the stable steering pattern and absence of significant cold-air intrusions.