Ongoing regional military tensions, including the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity around the Strait of Hormuz, continue to shape trader assessments for potential Israeli airspace closures. Earlier in 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR closed and reopened multiple times amid strikes and retaliatory missile/drone threats from Iran and Hezbollah. As of late August, the airspace remains open with a "danger exists" risk rating, supported by official statements that no closure is planned despite US refueling aircraft at Ben Gurion and recent Israeli strikes on Syrian airbases near the Turkish border. EASA's advisory through August 31 urges caution across multiple regional FIRs, while sporadic northern threats and operational strains at the airport add volatility. Any fresh Iranian retaliation, Syrian escalation, or intensified cross-border incidents could quickly shift implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$27,427,288 Vol.
30 set 2026
31 agosto
2%
30 settembre
7%
$27,427,288 Vol.
31 agosto
$1,380,462 Vol.
2%
30 settembre
$14,945 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional military tensions, including the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity around the Strait of Hormuz, continue to shape trader assessments for potential Israeli airspace closures. Earlier in 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR closed and reopened multiple times amid strikes and retaliatory missile/drone threats from Iran and Hezbollah. As of late August, the airspace remains open with a "danger exists" risk rating, supported by official statements that no closure is planned despite US refueling aircraft at Ben Gurion and recent Israeli strikes on Syrian airbases near the Turkish border. EASA's advisory through August 31 urges caution across multiple regional FIRs, while sporadic northern threats and operational strains at the airport add volatility. Any fresh Iranian retaliation, Syrian escalation, or intensified cross-border incidents could quickly shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volume
$27,427,288Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional military tensions, including the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity around the Strait of Hormuz, continue to shape trader assessments for potential Israeli airspace closures. Earlier in 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR closed and reopened multiple times amid strikes and retaliatory missile/drone threats from Iran and Hezbollah. As of late August, the airspace remains open with a "danger exists" risk rating, supported by official statements that no closure is planned despite US refueling aircraft at Ben Gurion and recent Israeli strikes on Syrian airbases near the Turkish border. EASA's advisory through August 31 urges caution across multiple regional FIRs, while sporadic northern threats and operational strains at the airport add volatility. Any fresh Iranian retaliation, Syrian escalation, or intensified cross-border incidents could quickly shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,427,288Data di fine
1 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional military tensions, including the breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity around the Strait of Hormuz, continue to shape trader assessments for potential Israeli airspace closures. Earlier in 2026, the Tel Aviv FIR closed and reopened multiple times amid strikes and retaliatory missile/drone threats from Iran and Hezbollah. As of late August, the airspace remains open with a "danger exists" risk rating, supported by official statements that no closure is planned despite US refueling aircraft at Ben Gurion and recent Israeli strikes on Syrian airbases near the Turkish border. EASA's advisory through August 31 urges caution across multiple regional FIRs, while sporadic northern threats and operational strains at the airport add volatility. Any fresh Iranian retaliation, Syrian escalation, or intensified cross-border incidents could quickly shift implied probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti