Negotiations between the United States and Iran under the June 2026 memorandum of understanding have not produced agreement on ending uranium enrichment, with the 60-day window for a final deal having expired amid persistent gaps. US positions demand a halt to enrichment activities and destruction of stockpiles, while Iranian statements emphasize its nuclear needs and right to enrichment under IAEA oversight limited to down-blending. Recent satellite imagery from July and August 2026 shows reconstruction at key nuclear and missile sites, signaling resumed activity despite the interim status-quo pledge. These developments, combined with stalled technical talks and public statements from both sides, underpin trader consensus that Iran will not commit to full cessation by year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
14% probabilità
$1,671,213 Vol.
$1,671,213 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sì
14% probabilità
$1,671,213 Vol.
$1,671,213 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Negotiations between the United States and Iran under the June 2026 memorandum of understanding have not produced agreement on ending uranium enrichment, with the 60-day window for a final deal having expired amid persistent gaps. US positions demand a halt to enrichment activities and destruction of stockpiles, while Iranian statements emphasize its nuclear needs and right to enrichment under IAEA oversight limited to down-blending. Recent satellite imagery from July and August 2026 shows reconstruction at key nuclear and missile sites, signaling resumed activity despite the interim status-quo pledge. These developments, combined with stalled technical talks and public statements from both sides, underpin trader consensus that Iran will not commit to full cessation by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$1,671,213Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Negotiations between the United States and Iran under the June 2026 memorandum of understanding have not produced agreement on ending uranium enrichment, with the 60-day window for a final deal having expired amid persistent gaps. US positions demand a halt to enrichment activities and destruction of stockpiles, while Iranian statements emphasize its nuclear needs and right to enrichment under IAEA oversight limited to down-blending. Recent satellite imagery from July and August 2026 shows reconstruction at key nuclear and missile sites, signaling resumed activity despite the interim status-quo pledge. These developments, combined with stalled technical talks and public statements from both sides, underpin trader consensus that Iran will not commit to full cessation by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,671,213Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Negotiations between the United States and Iran under the June 2026 memorandum of understanding have not produced agreement on ending uranium enrichment, with the 60-day window for a final deal having expired amid persistent gaps. US positions demand a halt to enrichment activities and destruction of stockpiles, while Iranian statements emphasize its nuclear needs and right to enrichment under IAEA oversight limited to down-blending. Recent satellite imagery from July and August 2026 shows reconstruction at key nuclear and missile sites, signaling resumed activity despite the interim status-quo pledge. These developments, combined with stalled technical talks and public statements from both sides, underpin trader consensus that Iran will not commit to full cessation by year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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