Recent Houthi announcements of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait since July 20, 2026, combined with claimed missile and drone strikes on multiple oil tankers, have driven elevated market-implied odds for successful targeting of commercial shipping. These actions expand risks to Red Sea transit, a critical route handling several million barrels per day of Saudi crude exports rerouted from the disrupted Strait of Hormuz amid U.S.-Iran hostilities. Resulting ship diversions, reduced transits, and higher insurance premiums have amplified volatility in energy benchmarks and global supply chains. Upcoming catalysts include potential multinational naval responses and any escalation tied to regional ceasefires or proxy dynamics, which could shift probabilities based on confirmed kinetic incidents before month-end resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoGli Houthi mirano con successo alla spedizione su...?
Gli Houthi mirano con successo alla spedizione su...?
$259,377 Vol.
24 ago 2026
17 agosto
75%
23 agosto
5%
24 agosto
91%
25 agosto
13%
26 agosto
66%
27 agosto
52%
28 agosto
26%
29 agosto
48%
30 agosto
24%
31 agosto
16%
$259,377 Vol.
17 agosto
$9,046 Vol.
75%
23 agosto
$2,324 Vol.
5%
24 agosto
$5,075 Vol.
91%
25 agosto
$2,780 Vol.
13%
26 agosto
$1,093 Vol.
66%
27 agosto
$2,215 Vol.
52%
28 agosto
$2,491 Vol.
26%
29 agosto
$2,967 Vol.
48%
30 agosto
$2,215 Vol.
24%
31 agosto
$3,772 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Recent Houthi announcements of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait since July 20, 2026, combined with claimed missile and drone strikes on multiple oil tankers, have driven elevated market-implied odds for successful targeting of commercial shipping. These actions expand risks to Red Sea transit, a critical route handling several million barrels per day of Saudi crude exports rerouted from the disrupted Strait of Hormuz amid U.S.-Iran hostilities. Resulting ship diversions, reduced transits, and higher insurance premiums have amplified volatility in energy benchmarks and global supply chains. Upcoming catalysts include potential multinational naval responses and any escalation tied to regional ceasefires or proxy dynamics, which could shift probabilities based on confirmed kinetic incidents before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Mercato aperto: Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$259,377Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Recent Houthi announcements of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait since July 20, 2026, combined with claimed missile and drone strikes on multiple oil tankers, have driven elevated market-implied odds for successful targeting of commercial shipping. These actions expand risks to Red Sea transit, a critical route handling several million barrels per day of Saudi crude exports rerouted from the disrupted Strait of Hormuz amid U.S.-Iran hostilities. Resulting ship diversions, reduced transits, and higher insurance premiums have amplified volatility in energy benchmarks and global supply chains. Upcoming catalysts include potential multinational naval responses and any escalation tied to regional ceasefires or proxy dynamics, which could shift probabilities based on confirmed kinetic incidents before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Volume
$259,377Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Houthi announcements of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait since July 20, 2026, combined with claimed missile and drone strikes on multiple oil tankers, have driven elevated market-implied odds for successful targeting of commercial shipping. These actions expand risks to Red Sea transit, a critical route handling several million barrels per day of Saudi crude exports rerouted from the disrupted Strait of Hormuz amid U.S.-Iran hostilities. Resulting ship diversions, reduced transits, and higher insurance premiums have amplified volatility in energy benchmarks and global supply chains. Upcoming catalysts include potential multinational naval responses and any escalation tied to regional ceasefires or proxy dynamics, which could shift probabilities based on confirmed kinetic incidents before month-end resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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