Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources like the Met Office and timeanddate.com indicate Shanghai's August 21 maximum will likely fall in the 30–32°C range amid thundery showers, broken clouds, and high humidity typical of the region's late-summer monsoon pattern. This consensus, aligned with climatological averages near 31–32°C and no strong warming or cooling signals in the latest runs, positions 31°C as the market leader at 40.5% implied probability, followed closely by 30°C. Traders appear to weigh the narrow forecast spread and historical variability in daily peaks when assigning lower odds to 33°C or below 30°C outcomes. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours could refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Shanghai il 21 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a Shanghai il 21 agosto?
31°C 41%
30°C 29%
32°C 16%
29°C 12%
NUOVO
NUOVO
21 ago 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
12%
30°C
29%
31°C
41%
32°C
16%
33°C
4%
34°C or higher
<1%
31°C 41%
30°C 29%
32°C 16%
29°C 12%
NUOVO
NUOVO
21 ago 2026
24°C or below
$336 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$879 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$522 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$295 Vol.
1%
28°C
$78 Vol.
3%
29°C
$699 Vol.
12%
30°C
$375 Vol.
29%
31°C
$304 Vol.
41%
32°C
$640 Vol.
16%
33°C
$63 Vol.
4%
34°C or higher
$37 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources like the Met Office and timeanddate.com indicate Shanghai's August 21 maximum will likely fall in the 30–32°C range amid thundery showers, broken clouds, and high humidity typical of the region's late-summer monsoon pattern. This consensus, aligned with climatological averages near 31–32°C and no strong warming or cooling signals in the latest runs, positions 31°C as the market leader at 40.5% implied probability, followed closely by 30°C. Traders appear to weigh the narrow forecast spread and historical variability in daily peaks when assigning lower odds to 33°C or below 30°C outcomes. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours could refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$4,227Data di fine
21 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources like the Met Office and timeanddate.com indicate Shanghai's August 21 maximum will likely fall in the 30–32°C range amid thundery showers, broken clouds, and high humidity typical of the region's late-summer monsoon pattern. This consensus, aligned with climatological averages near 31–32°C and no strong warming or cooling signals in the latest runs, positions 31°C as the market leader at 40.5% implied probability, followed closely by 30°C. Traders appear to weigh the narrow forecast spread and historical variability in daily peaks when assigning lower odds to 33°C or below 30°C outcomes. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours could refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,227Data di fine
21 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models from sources like the Met Office and timeanddate.com indicate Shanghai's August 21 maximum will likely fall in the 30–32°C range amid thundery showers, broken clouds, and high humidity typical of the region's late-summer monsoon pattern. This consensus, aligned with climatological averages near 31–32°C and no strong warming or cooling signals in the latest runs, positions 31°C as the market leader at 40.5% implied probability, followed closely by 30°C. Traders appear to weigh the narrow forecast spread and historical variability in daily peaks when assigning lower odds to 33°C or below 30°C outcomes. Updated model guidance expected within the next 24–48 hours could refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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