Recent INMET and global model guidance, including ECMWF and GFS runs, form the main driver behind the market’s concentration on 27–28 °C, with ensemble means indicating a maximum near 27.5 °C under stable high-pressure conditions and minimal cloud cover. August climatology for São Paulo shows average highs of 23–25 °C, so current projections reflect a modest warm anomaly without extreme heat advection or strong insolation. Light easterly flow and low humidity minima around 20 % support efficient daytime warming but limit further intensification, keeping 29 °C and higher at low implied odds. Updated model outputs and the official INMET observation released tomorrow evening will determine final resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a San Paolo il 5 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a San Paolo il 5 agosto?
28°C 42%
27°C 28%
29°C 18%
26°C 10%
NUOVO
NUOVO
5 ago 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C
10%
27°C
28%
28°C
42%
29°C
18%
30°C
5%
31°C
3%
32°C or higher
2%
28°C 42%
27°C 28%
29°C 18%
26°C 10%
NUOVO
NUOVO
5 ago 2026
22°C or below
$15 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$95 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$25 Vol.
1%
25°C
$38 Vol.
2%
26°C
$100 Vol.
10%
27°C
$98 Vol.
28%
28°C
$235 Vol.
42%
29°C
$32 Vol.
18%
30°C
$17 Vol.
5%
31°C
$29 Vol.
3%
32°C or higher
$29 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent INMET and global model guidance, including ECMWF and GFS runs, form the main driver behind the market’s concentration on 27–28 °C, with ensemble means indicating a maximum near 27.5 °C under stable high-pressure conditions and minimal cloud cover. August climatology for São Paulo shows average highs of 23–25 °C, so current projections reflect a modest warm anomaly without extreme heat advection or strong insolation. Light easterly flow and low humidity minima around 20 % support efficient daytime warming but limit further intensification, keeping 29 °C and higher at low implied odds. Updated model outputs and the official INMET observation released tomorrow evening will determine final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$712Data di fine
5 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent INMET and global model guidance, including ECMWF and GFS runs, form the main driver behind the market’s concentration on 27–28 °C, with ensemble means indicating a maximum near 27.5 °C under stable high-pressure conditions and minimal cloud cover. August climatology for São Paulo shows average highs of 23–25 °C, so current projections reflect a modest warm anomaly without extreme heat advection or strong insolation. Light easterly flow and low humidity minima around 20 % support efficient daytime warming but limit further intensification, keeping 29 °C and higher at low implied odds. Updated model outputs and the official INMET observation released tomorrow evening will determine final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$712Data di fine
5 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 3, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent INMET and global model guidance, including ECMWF and GFS runs, form the main driver behind the market’s concentration on 27–28 °C, with ensemble means indicating a maximum near 27.5 °C under stable high-pressure conditions and minimal cloud cover. August climatology for São Paulo shows average highs of 23–25 °C, so current projections reflect a modest warm anomaly without extreme heat advection or strong insolation. Light easterly flow and low humidity minima around 20 % support efficient daytime warming but limit further intensification, keeping 29 °C and higher at low implied odds. Updated model outputs and the official INMET observation released tomorrow evening will determine final resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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