Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor maintains an edge in Florida’s 14th district through consistent polling leads of 8–9 points against leading Republican primary contenders and strong fundraising, even after recent redistricting shifted the seat to an R+4 partisan voter index. The August 18 Republican primary remains crowded with candidates including Mike Beltran, preventing early consolidation, while Castor faces no significant Democratic primary opposition. Traders price the Democratic nominee at 58.5% to win the November 3 general election, reflecting these structural advantages and historical performance in the Tampa Bay area despite the district’s competitive lean.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera FL-14
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera FL-14
$29,248 Vol.
$29,248 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
59%
Republican Party
39%
$29,248 Vol.
$29,248 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$14,806 Vol.
59%
Republican Party
$14,442 Vol.
39%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor maintains an edge in Florida’s 14th district through consistent polling leads of 8–9 points against leading Republican primary contenders and strong fundraising, even after recent redistricting shifted the seat to an R+4 partisan voter index. The August 18 Republican primary remains crowded with candidates including Mike Beltran, preventing early consolidation, while Castor faces no significant Democratic primary opposition. Traders price the Democratic nominee at 58.5% to win the November 3 general election, reflecting these structural advantages and historical performance in the Tampa Bay area despite the district’s competitive lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ET
Volume
$29,248Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor maintains an edge in Florida’s 14th district through consistent polling leads of 8–9 points against leading Republican primary contenders and strong fundraising, even after recent redistricting shifted the seat to an R+4 partisan voter index. The August 18 Republican primary remains crowded with candidates including Mike Beltran, preventing early consolidation, while Castor faces no significant Democratic primary opposition. Traders price the Democratic nominee at 58.5% to win the November 3 general election, reflecting these structural advantages and historical performance in the Tampa Bay area despite the district’s competitive lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$29,248Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:48 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kathy Castor maintains an edge in Florida’s 14th district through consistent polling leads of 8–9 points against leading Republican primary contenders and strong fundraising, even after recent redistricting shifted the seat to an R+4 partisan voter index. The August 18 Republican primary remains crowded with candidates including Mike Beltran, preventing early consolidation, while Castor faces no significant Democratic primary opposition. Traders price the Democratic nominee at 58.5% to win the November 3 general election, reflecting these structural advantages and historical performance in the Tampa Bay area despite the district’s competitive lean.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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