Strong trader consensus around a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 99.3% implied probability reflects the market’s assessment of resilient U.S. economic data and contained inflation pressures through mid-2026, with the Federal Reserve maintaining its current policy rate amid steady labor market conditions and moderate GDP growth. Recent CPI and employment releases have aligned with the Fed’s dual mandate without triggering urgency for adjustment, reinforcing expectations that the FOMC will hold the federal funds rate steady across the March, May, and June meetings. Scenarios that could still shift pricing include a sharper-than-expected disinflation print or sudden deterioration in payrolls that alters the Fed’s dot-plot trajectory and revives cut probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPausa–Pausa–Pausa 99.3%
Pausa–Pausa–Taglio <1%
Altro <1%
$2,282,875 Vol.
$2,282,875 Vol.
17 giu 2026
Pausa–Pausa–Pausa
99%
Pausa–Pausa–Taglio
<1%
Altro
<1%
Pausa–Pausa–Pausa 99.3%
Pausa–Pausa–Taglio <1%
Altro <1%
$2,282,875 Vol.
$2,282,875 Vol.
17 giu 2026
Pausa–Pausa–Pausa
$480,181 Vol.
99%
Pausa–Pausa–Taglio
$616,719 Vol.
<1%
Altro
$440,633 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmStrong trader consensus around a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 99.3% implied probability reflects the market’s assessment of resilient U.S. economic data and contained inflation pressures through mid-2026, with the Federal Reserve maintaining its current policy rate amid steady labor market conditions and moderate GDP growth. Recent CPI and employment releases have aligned with the Fed’s dual mandate without triggering urgency for adjustment, reinforcing expectations that the FOMC will hold the federal funds rate steady across the March, May, and June meetings. Scenarios that could still shift pricing include a sharper-than-expected disinflation print or sudden deterioration in payrolls that alters the Fed’s dot-plot trajectory and revives cut probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercato aperto: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Volume
$2,282,875Data di fine
17 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmStrong trader consensus around a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 99.3% implied probability reflects the market’s assessment of resilient U.S. economic data and contained inflation pressures through mid-2026, with the Federal Reserve maintaining its current policy rate amid steady labor market conditions and moderate GDP growth. Recent CPI and employment releases have aligned with the Fed’s dual mandate without triggering urgency for adjustment, reinforcing expectations that the FOMC will hold the federal funds rate steady across the March, May, and June meetings. Scenarios that could still shift pricing include a sharper-than-expected disinflation print or sudden deterioration in payrolls that alters the Fed’s dot-plot trajectory and revives cut probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$2,282,875Data di fine
17 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Strong trader consensus around a Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 99.3% implied probability reflects the market’s assessment of resilient U.S. economic data and contained inflation pressures through mid-2026, with the Federal Reserve maintaining its current policy rate amid steady labor market conditions and moderate GDP growth. Recent CPI and employment releases have aligned with the Fed’s dual mandate without triggering urgency for adjustment, reinforcing expectations that the FOMC will hold the federal funds rate steady across the March, May, and June meetings. Scenarios that could still shift pricing include a sharper-than-expected disinflation print or sudden deterioration in payrolls that alters the Fed’s dot-plot trajectory and revives cut probabilities.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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