Persistent inflation pressures, fueled by geopolitical tensions and resilient energy prices, combined with a robust labor market, have anchored Federal Reserve policy expectations firmly in hold mode through mid-2026. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the April pause and markets assigning over 95% odds of no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, trader consensus heavily favors continued pauses into July. Recent economic releases and economist surveys reinforce this path, showing fading cut probabilities as inflation remains above target. A material downside surprise in upcoming CPI or employment data, or an unexpected dovish shift in communications, could still introduce limited volatility around the July decision.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPause–Pause–Pause 95%
Other 3.6%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.3%
$55,228 Vol.
$55,228 Vol.
29 lug 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
95%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
4%
Pause–Pause–Pause 95%
Other 3.6%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.3%
$55,228 Vol.
$55,228 Vol.
29 lug 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$4,902 Vol.
95%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$2,970 Vol.
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$3,413 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,945 Vol.
<1%
Other
$2,012 Vol.
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures, fueled by geopolitical tensions and resilient energy prices, combined with a robust labor market, have anchored Federal Reserve policy expectations firmly in hold mode through mid-2026. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the April pause and markets assigning over 95% odds of no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, trader consensus heavily favors continued pauses into July. Recent economic releases and economist surveys reinforce this path, showing fading cut probabilities as inflation remains above target. A material downside surprise in upcoming CPI or employment data, or an unexpected dovish shift in communications, could still introduce limited volatility around the July decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercato aperto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volume
$55,228Data di fine
29 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures, fueled by geopolitical tensions and resilient energy prices, combined with a robust labor market, have anchored Federal Reserve policy expectations firmly in hold mode through mid-2026. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the April pause and markets assigning over 95% odds of no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, trader consensus heavily favors continued pauses into July. Recent economic releases and economist surveys reinforce this path, showing fading cut probabilities as inflation remains above target. A material downside surprise in upcoming CPI or employment data, or an unexpected dovish shift in communications, could still introduce limited volatility around the July decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$55,228Data di fine
29 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures, fueled by geopolitical tensions and resilient energy prices, combined with a robust labor market, have anchored Federal Reserve policy expectations firmly in hold mode through mid-2026. With the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the April pause and markets assigning over 95% odds of no change at the June 16-17 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, trader consensus heavily favors continued pauses into July. Recent economic releases and economist surveys reinforce this path, showing fading cut probabilities as inflation remains above target. A material downside surprise in upcoming CPI or employment data, or an unexpected dovish shift in communications, could still introduce limited volatility around the July decision.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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