The September 14, 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election follows the resignation of the prior UCP MLA, with nominations closing August 27. UCP candidate Mike Derry secured his party's nomination in June after defeating a sitting city councillor, drawing on the riding's 2023 result where the UCP captured 56 percent. This incumbency advantage and party organizational support underpin trader consensus favoring Derry at the highest probability. NDP candidate Kyle Campbell and smaller-party entrants including Liberal John Roggeveen and Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph trail, reflecting limited recent polling shifts or campaign momentum that would alter the baseline partisan lean. Scheduled advance voting and the short campaign window leave room for turnout variations or late developments to influence final margins.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMike Derry 64%
Kyle Campbell 30%
John Roggeveen <1%
Kyle Joseph <1%
Mike Derry
64%
Kyle Campbell
30%
John Roggeveen
<1%
Kyle Joseph
<1%
Mike Derry 64%
Kyle Campbell 30%
John Roggeveen <1%
Kyle Joseph <1%
Mike Derry
64%
Kyle Campbell
30%
John Roggeveen
<1%
Kyle Joseph
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Mercato aperto: Aug 21, 2026, 6:53 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Alberta (https://www.elections.ab.ca/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The September 14, 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election follows the resignation of the prior UCP MLA, with nominations closing August 27. UCP candidate Mike Derry secured his party's nomination in June after defeating a sitting city councillor, drawing on the riding's 2023 result where the UCP captured 56 percent. This incumbency advantage and party organizational support underpin trader consensus favoring Derry at the highest probability. NDP candidate Kyle Campbell and smaller-party entrants including Liberal John Roggeveen and Progressive Tory Kyle Joseph trail, reflecting limited recent polling shifts or campaign momentum that would alter the baseline partisan lean. Scheduled advance voting and the short campaign window leave room for turnout variations or late developments to influence final margins.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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