Recent polling averages for the September 20 Berlin state election place Bündnis 90/Die Grünen between 15% and 18%, aligning with trader consensus favoring a 14-17% outcome. The party has shown limited movement from its 18.4% result in the 2023 repeat election amid gains by Die Linke and the AfD, alongside a weaker SPD performance. Late-August surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, Forsa, and Civey consistently show the Greens in this range, with no dominant late surge or decline evident. A fragmented five-party contest and the five-percent threshold dynamics limit upside scenarios above 20%, while downside risks below 14% remain secondary given stable support levels. The election timeline leaves room for final-week shifts in turnout or undecided voters.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato14-17% 48%
17-20% 31%
<14% 21%
20%+ 3.5%
$18,994 Vol.
$18,994 Vol.
20 set 2026
<14%
21%
14-17%
48%
17-20%
31%
20%+
3%
14-17% 48%
17-20% 31%
<14% 21%
20%+ 3.5%
$18,994 Vol.
$18,994 Vol.
20 set 2026
<14%
$9,975 Vol.
21%
14-17%
$7,361 Vol.
48%
17-20%
$1,236 Vol.
31%
20%+
$422 Vol.
3%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages for the September 20 Berlin state election place Bündnis 90/Die Grünen between 15% and 18%, aligning with trader consensus favoring a 14-17% outcome. The party has shown limited movement from its 18.4% result in the 2023 repeat election amid gains by Die Linke and the AfD, alongside a weaker SPD performance. Late-August surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, Forsa, and Civey consistently show the Greens in this range, with no dominant late surge or decline evident. A fragmented five-party contest and the five-percent threshold dynamics limit upside scenarios above 20%, while downside risks below 14% remain secondary given stable support levels. The election timeline leaves room for final-week shifts in turnout or undecided voters.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Mercato aperto: Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volume
$18,994Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages for the September 20 Berlin state election place Bündnis 90/Die Grünen between 15% and 18%, aligning with trader consensus favoring a 14-17% outcome. The party has shown limited movement from its 18.4% result in the 2023 repeat election amid gains by Die Linke and the AfD, alongside a weaker SPD performance. Late-August surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, Forsa, and Civey consistently show the Greens in this range, with no dominant late surge or decline evident. A fragmented five-party contest and the five-percent threshold dynamics limit upside scenarios above 20%, while downside risks below 14% remain secondary given stable support levels. The election timeline leaves room for final-week shifts in turnout or undecided voters.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by Grüne in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$18,994Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages for the September 20 Berlin state election place Bündnis 90/Die Grünen between 15% and 18%, aligning with trader consensus favoring a 14-17% outcome. The party has shown limited movement from its 18.4% result in the 2023 repeat election amid gains by Die Linke and the AfD, alongside a weaker SPD performance. Late-August surveys from Infratest dimap, INSA, Forsa, and Civey consistently show the Greens in this range, with no dominant late surge or decline evident. A fragmented five-party contest and the five-percent threshold dynamics limit upside scenarios above 20%, while downside risks below 14% remain secondary given stable support levels. The election timeline leaves room for final-week shifts in turnout or undecided voters.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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