Recent polling for the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the CDU consistently at or below 20 percent, with August surveys placing it at 18 percent (Forsa) or 20 percent (INSA), behind or tied with the Linke and AfD. The party’s support has declined from its 28.2 percent result in 2023 and from earlier 2026 readings near 22 percent, amid low approval for the incumbent CDU-SPD senate and a shift to Stefan Evers as lead candidate. Multiple institutes register CDU figures in the 17–20 percent range, reflecting voter movement toward other parties in a fragmented field. Trader consensus on the under-20 percent outcome at 67.5 percent aligns with this sustained polling trend and the limited remaining campaign window for reversal.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSopra
35% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
20 set 2026
Sopra
35% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
20 set 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the CDU consistently at or below 20 percent, with August surveys placing it at 18 percent (Forsa) or 20 percent (INSA), behind or tied with the Linke and AfD. The party’s support has declined from its 28.2 percent result in 2023 and from earlier 2026 readings near 22 percent, amid low approval for the incumbent CDU-SPD senate and a shift to Stefan Evers as lead candidate. Multiple institutes register CDU figures in the 17–20 percent range, reflecting voter movement toward other parties in a fragmented field. Trader consensus on the under-20 percent outcome at 67.5 percent aligns with this sustained polling trend and the limited remaining campaign window for reversal.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Mercato aperto: Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ET
Volume
$1,108Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling for the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the CDU consistently at or below 20 percent, with August surveys placing it at 18 percent (Forsa) or 20 percent (INSA), behind or tied with the Linke and AfD. The party’s support has declined from its 28.2 percent result in 2023 and from earlier 2026 readings near 22 percent, amid low approval for the incumbent CDU-SPD senate and a shift to Stefan Evers as lead candidate. Multiple institutes register CDU figures in the 17–20 percent range, reflecting voter movement toward other parties in a fragmented field. Trader consensus on the under-20 percent outcome at 67.5 percent aligns with this sustained polling trend and the limited remaining campaign window for reversal.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 20% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$1,108Data di fine
20 set 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:19 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling for the September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election shows the CDU consistently at or below 20 percent, with August surveys placing it at 18 percent (Forsa) or 20 percent (INSA), behind or tied with the Linke and AfD. The party’s support has declined from its 28.2 percent result in 2023 and from earlier 2026 readings near 22 percent, amid low approval for the incumbent CDU-SPD senate and a shift to Stefan Evers as lead candidate. Multiple institutes register CDU figures in the 17–20 percent range, reflecting voter movement toward other parties in a fragmented field. Trader consensus on the under-20 percent outcome at 67.5 percent aligns with this sustained polling trend and the limited remaining campaign window for reversal.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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