Recent Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi-linked vessels in the Red Sea have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting, keeping Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near recent weekly averages of 35–38 vessels per day. MarineTraffic data for the week ending August 24 showed 269 crossings (up 3% week-over-week), while JMIC rolling figures for late August periods imply daily rates of 32–38. This places the month-end average firmly in the 25–34 range priced by the leading outcomes, as container and tanker operators weigh ongoing ballistic-missile incidents against limited compliant tonnage. With resolution imminent, any final-week stabilization above 35 or renewed incidents pushing volumes below 30 remain the key swing factors for the closely contested bins.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNumero medio di navi in transito sullo stretto di Bab el-Mandeb alla fine di agosto?
Numero medio di navi in transito sullo stretto di Bab el-Mandeb alla fine di agosto?
30-34 39%
25-29 37%
<25 11.8%
35-39 11%
$28,559 Vol.
$28,559 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<25
12%
25-29
37%
30-34
39%
35-39
11%
40+
3%
30-34 39%
25-29 37%
<25 11.8%
35-39 11%
$28,559 Vol.
$28,559 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<25
$4,897 Vol.
12%
25-29
$6,816 Vol.
37%
30-34
$6,794 Vol.
39%
35-39
$4,148 Vol.
11%
40+
$5,905 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi-linked vessels in the Red Sea have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting, keeping Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near recent weekly averages of 35–38 vessels per day. MarineTraffic data for the week ending August 24 showed 269 crossings (up 3% week-over-week), while JMIC rolling figures for late August periods imply daily rates of 32–38. This places the month-end average firmly in the 25–34 range priced by the leading outcomes, as container and tanker operators weigh ongoing ballistic-missile incidents against limited compliant tonnage. With resolution imminent, any final-week stabilization above 35 or renewed incidents pushing volumes below 30 remain the key swing factors for the closely contested bins.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercato aperto: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$28,559Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi-linked vessels in the Red Sea have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting, keeping Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near recent weekly averages of 35–38 vessels per day. MarineTraffic data for the week ending August 24 showed 269 crossings (up 3% week-over-week), while JMIC rolling figures for late August periods imply daily rates of 32–38. This places the month-end average firmly in the 25–34 range priced by the leading outcomes, as container and tanker operators weigh ongoing ballistic-missile incidents against limited compliant tonnage. With resolution imminent, any final-week stabilization above 35 or renewed incidents pushing volumes below 30 remain the key swing factors for the closely contested bins.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$28,559Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi-linked vessels in the Red Sea have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting, keeping Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed near recent weekly averages of 35–38 vessels per day. MarineTraffic data for the week ending August 24 showed 269 crossings (up 3% week-over-week), while JMIC rolling figures for late August periods imply daily rates of 32–38. This places the month-end average firmly in the 25–34 range priced by the leading outcomes, as container and tanker operators weigh ongoing ballistic-missile incidents against limited compliant tonnage. With resolution imminent, any final-week stabilization above 35 or renewed incidents pushing volumes below 30 remain the key swing factors for the closely contested bins.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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