USGS data and fault mechanics establish that magnitude 10+ earthquakes are physically impossible on Earth, as no known fault segment is long enough to release the required energy—such an event would need a rupture spanning much of the planet's circumference. The largest recorded quake remains the 9.5 Valdivia event in Chile in 1960, with all subsequent monitoring by the USGS confirming maximum magnitudes cluster below 9.6. With only months left before 2027, trader consensus at 99.4% for No reflects this established upper limit on seismic energy release. The sole remote variables would involve unforeseen revisions to magnitude scaling or detection of an unprecedented multi-fault cascade, though neither aligns with current observational records or tectonic models.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato10,0 o superiore prima del 2027?
10,0 o superiore prima del 2027?
Sì
<1% probabilità
$792,663 Vol.
$792,663 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
<1% probabilità
$792,663 Vol.
$792,663 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS data and fault mechanics establish that magnitude 10+ earthquakes are physically impossible on Earth, as no known fault segment is long enough to release the required energy—such an event would need a rupture spanning much of the planet's circumference. The largest recorded quake remains the 9.5 Valdivia event in Chile in 1960, with all subsequent monitoring by the USGS confirming maximum magnitudes cluster below 9.6. With only months left before 2027, trader consensus at 99.4% for No reflects this established upper limit on seismic energy release. The sole remote variables would involve unforeseen revisions to magnitude scaling or detection of an unprecedented multi-fault cascade, though neither aligns with current observational records or tectonic models.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercato aperto: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Volume
$792,663Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS data and fault mechanics establish that magnitude 10+ earthquakes are physically impossible on Earth, as no known fault segment is long enough to release the required energy—such an event would need a rupture spanning much of the planet's circumference. The largest recorded quake remains the 9.5 Valdivia event in Chile in 1960, with all subsequent monitoring by the USGS confirming maximum magnitudes cluster below 9.6. With only months left before 2027, trader consensus at 99.4% for No reflects this established upper limit on seismic energy release. The sole remote variables would involve unforeseen revisions to magnitude scaling or detection of an unprecedented multi-fault cascade, though neither aligns with current observational records or tectonic models.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$792,663Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...USGS data and fault mechanics establish that magnitude 10+ earthquakes are physically impossible on Earth, as no known fault segment is long enough to release the required energy—such an event would need a rupture spanning much of the planet's circumference. The largest recorded quake remains the 9.5 Valdivia event in Chile in 1960, with all subsequent monitoring by the USGS confirming maximum magnitudes cluster below 9.6. With only months left before 2027, trader consensus at 99.4% for No reflects this established upper limit on seismic energy release. The sole remote variables would involve unforeseen revisions to magnitude scaling or detection of an unprecedented multi-fault cascade, though neither aligns with current observational records or tectonic models.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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