Democratic prospects of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms remain the central driver behind the 68.5% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. Recent attempts, including Rep. Al Green’s August 2026 resolution citing immigration enforcement actions by ICE and CBP, were tabled 232-147 on September 15 with significant Democratic support for tabling or present votes, reflecting leadership caution ahead of elections. Statements from figures such as Rep. Jamie Raskin indicate willingness to pursue formal proceedings if Democrats secure a majority, building on prior failed resolutions and policy disputes. Traders appear to price in the historical precedent of House majorities advancing impeachment when partisan incentives align, tempered by Senate conviction thresholds and the remaining term timeline.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill Trump be impeached before his term ends?
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
69% peluang
$102,681 Vol.
$102,681 Vol.
Jan 19, 2029
Dapatkan 3.25%
69% peluang
$102,681 Vol.
$102,681 Vol.
Jan 19, 2029
Dapatkan 3.25%
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democratic prospects of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms remain the central driver behind the 68.5% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. Recent attempts, including Rep. Al Green’s August 2026 resolution citing immigration enforcement actions by ICE and CBP, were tabled 232-147 on September 15 with significant Democratic support for tabling or present votes, reflecting leadership caution ahead of elections. Statements from figures such as Rep. Jamie Raskin indicate willingness to pursue formal proceedings if Democrats secure a majority, building on prior failed resolutions and policy disputes. Traders appear to price in the historical precedent of House majorities advancing impeachment when partisan incentives align, tempered by Senate conviction thresholds and the remaining term timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$102,681Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 20, 2029Pasar Dibuka
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.Democratic prospects of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms remain the central driver behind the 68.5% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. Recent attempts, including Rep. Al Green’s August 2026 resolution citing immigration enforcement actions by ICE and CBP, were tabled 232-147 on September 15 with significant Democratic support for tabling or present votes, reflecting leadership caution ahead of elections. Statements from figures such as Rep. Jamie Raskin indicate willingness to pursue formal proceedings if Democrats secure a majority, building on prior failed resolutions and policy disputes. Traders appear to price in the historical precedent of House majorities advancing impeachment when partisan incentives align, tempered by Senate conviction thresholds and the remaining term timeline.
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Volume
$102,681Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 20, 2029Pasar Dibuka
Mar 19, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Democratic prospects of regaining House control in the November 2026 midterms remain the central driver behind the 68.5% implied probability that articles of impeachment will pass before January 2029. Recent attempts, including Rep. Al Green’s August 2026 resolution citing immigration enforcement actions by ICE and CBP, were tabled 232-147 on September 15 with significant Democratic support for tabling or present votes, reflecting leadership caution ahead of elections. Statements from figures such as Rep. Jamie Raskin indicate willingness to pursue formal proceedings if Democrats secure a majority, building on prior failed resolutions and policy disputes. Traders appear to price in the historical precedent of House majorities advancing impeachment when partisan incentives align, tempered by Senate conviction thresholds and the remaining term timeline.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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