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icon for Akankah AS menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?
Geopolitik·Timur Tengah

Akankah AS menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?

icon for Akankah AS menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?
Geopolitik·Timur Tengah

Akankah AS menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Ya

16% peluang
Polymarket

$59,978,894 Vol.

Ya

16% peluang
Polymarket

$59,978,894 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The trader consensus favoring no U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 reflects the high logistical, political, and strategic barriers to large-scale ground operations amid the ongoing conflict. U.S. actions have centered on airstrikes targeting Iranian military and maritime capabilities near the Strait of Hormuz, naval enforcement, and renewed sanctions after an interim MoU expired without a permanent agreement in mid-August 2026. Military experts assess a major ground campaign as extraordinarily risky given troop requirements exceeding current regional deployments, munitions constraints, Iranian defensive preparations, and limited public support for escalation. The Trump administration has instead emphasized coercive strikes and economic measures to pressure Tehran, with officials repeatedly signaling reluctance for full invasion while pursuing limited objectives.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$59,978,894
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The trader consensus favoring no U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 reflects the high logistical, political, and strategic barriers to large-scale ground operations amid the ongoing conflict. U.S. actions have centered on airstrikes targeting Iranian military and maritime capabilities near the Strait of Hormuz, naval enforcement, and renewed sanctions after an interim MoU expired without a permanent agreement in mid-August 2026. Military experts assess a major ground campaign as extraordinarily risky given troop requirements exceeding current regional deployments, munitions constraints, Iranian defensive preparations, and limited public support for escalation. The Trump administration has instead emphasized coercive strikes and economic measures to pressure Tehran, with officials repeatedly signaling reluctance for full invasion while pursuing limited objectives.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$59,978,894
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Akankah AS menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 2 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Apakah AS akan menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?" di 16%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 16¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 16% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Akankah AS menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?" telah menghasilkan $60 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Nov 5, 2025. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Akankah AS menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?," jelajahi 2 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Akankah AS menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?" adalah "Apakah AS akan menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?" di 16%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 16% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Akankah AS menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.