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Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher?

icon for Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher?

Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher?

<1% peluang
Polymarket

$16,912 Vol.

<1% peluang
Polymarket

$16,912 Vol.

This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall. The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome. JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Typhoon Dolphin, having peaked as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon with sustained winds near 165 mph in late July, has since undergone multiple eyewall replacement cycles and rapid weakening over cooler waters and increasing shear. As of August 9, 2026, Joint Typhoon Warning Center data place the system north of Taiwan with central pressure at 959 hPa and maximum winds around 75-85 mph, tracking northwest toward eastern China for expected landfall as a Category 1-equivalent or weaker system. Official forecasts from JTWC and NOAA-aligned models show continued decay before any mainland contact, rendering Category 4+ intensity at landfall statistically improbable. The near-certain market consensus on “No” reflects this observed intensity trend and model agreement, though an unusually rapid reintensification over anomalously warm East China Sea waters remains a low-probability outlier scenario.

This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.

The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.

JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.

This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Volume
$16,912
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall. The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome. JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall. The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome. JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Typhoon Dolphin, having peaked as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon with sustained winds near 165 mph in late July, has since undergone multiple eyewall replacement cycles and rapid weakening over cooler waters and increasing shear. As of August 9, 2026, Joint Typhoon Warning Center data place the system north of Taiwan with central pressure at 959 hPa and maximum winds around 75-85 mph, tracking northwest toward eastern China for expected landfall as a Category 1-equivalent or weaker system. Official forecasts from JTWC and NOAA-aligned models show continued decay before any mainland contact, rendering Category 4+ intensity at landfall statistically improbable. The near-certain market consensus on “No” reflects this observed intensity trend and model agreement, though an unusually rapid reintensification over anomalously warm East China Sea waters remains a low-probability outlier scenario.

This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.

The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.

JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.

This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Volume
$16,912
Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 16, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall. The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome. JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time. This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 1% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 1¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 1% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher?" telah menghasilkan $16.9K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jul 30, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher?" adalah 1% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 1% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.