Super Typhoon Dolphin’s current position in the East China Sea, combined with steering currents directing it northwest, has produced near-unanimous forecast consensus that the system will make landfall along China’s eastern coast in Zhejiang or adjacent provinces within the next 24–48 hours. Official alerts from Chinese authorities, port closures, and evacuation orders reflect this trajectory, while recent passes near Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands confirm the storm’s persistent westward movement. With the center already within striking distance, traders assign overwhelming probability to a China landfall. Only an abrupt, large-scale shift in upper-level steering or complete dissipation before arrival could alter the outcome, both considered highly improbable at this stage.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?
>99% peluang
$188,385 Vol.
$188,385 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
>99% peluang
$188,385 Vol.
$188,385 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of China on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Chinese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Chinese territory. For the purposes of this market, "China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including Special Administrative Regions (Hong Kong / Macau) and excluding Taiwan.
The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Chinese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Chinese land. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No."
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Chinese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Super Typhoon Dolphin’s current position in the East China Sea, combined with steering currents directing it northwest, has produced near-unanimous forecast consensus that the system will make landfall along China’s eastern coast in Zhejiang or adjacent provinces within the next 24–48 hours. Official alerts from Chinese authorities, port closures, and evacuation orders reflect this trajectory, while recent passes near Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands confirm the storm’s persistent westward movement. With the center already within striking distance, traders assign overwhelming probability to a China landfall. Only an abrupt, large-scale shift in upper-level steering or complete dissipation before arrival could alter the outcome, both considered highly improbable at this stage.
This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of China on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Chinese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Chinese territory. For the purposes of this market, "China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including Special Administrative Regions (Hong Kong / Macau) and excluding Taiwan.
The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Chinese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Chinese land. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No."
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Chinese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Chinese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Chinese land. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No."
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Chinese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 30, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Volume
$188,385Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 30, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of China on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Chinese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Chinese territory. For the purposes of this market, "China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including Special Administrative Regions (Hong Kong / Macau) and excluding Taiwan.
The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Chinese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Chinese land. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No."
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Chinese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Super Typhoon Dolphin’s current position in the East China Sea, combined with steering currents directing it northwest, has produced near-unanimous forecast consensus that the system will make landfall along China’s eastern coast in Zhejiang or adjacent provinces within the next 24–48 hours. Official alerts from Chinese authorities, port closures, and evacuation orders reflect this trajectory, while recent passes near Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands confirm the storm’s persistent westward movement. With the center already within striking distance, traders assign overwhelming probability to a China landfall. Only an abrupt, large-scale shift in upper-level steering or complete dissipation before arrival could alter the outcome, both considered highly improbable at this stage.
This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of China on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Chinese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Chinese territory. For the purposes of this market, "China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including Special Administrative Regions (Hong Kong / Macau) and excluding Taiwan.
The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Chinese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Chinese land. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No."
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Chinese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Chinese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Chinese land. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No."
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Chinese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Volume
$188,385Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 16, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 30, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Super Typhoon Dolphin’s current position in the East China Sea, combined with steering currents directing it northwest, has produced near-unanimous forecast consensus that the system will make landfall along China’s eastern coast in Zhejiang or adjacent provinces within the next 24–48 hours. Official alerts from Chinese authorities, port closures, and evacuation orders reflect this trajectory, while recent passes near Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands confirm the storm’s persistent westward movement. With the center already within striking distance, traders assign overwhelming probability to a China landfall. Only an abrupt, large-scale shift in upper-level steering or complete dissipation before arrival could alter the outcome, both considered highly improbable at this stage.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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