The closely matched market-implied odds around 7–8 landfalls reflect an above-average 2026 Northwest Pacific typhoon season driven by a developing El Niño, which favors more tropical cyclone formation and greater potential for western tracks toward China. As of early August, at least three confirmed landfalls have occurred—Maysak in Hainan (July 3), Bavi in Zhejiang (July 12), and Noul in Guangdong (July 26)—following an unusually active first half with 12 named systems by mid-June. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and seasonal models project 24–29 total formations for the year, with 7–9 expected to reach the mainland, exceeding the long-term average of roughly seven. Key differentiating factors for traders include steering patterns influenced by the monsoon trough and subtropical ridge, remaining peak-season genesis (August–October), and model consensus on landfall probability versus recurvature. Additional data releases from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and China Meteorological Administration through the autumn will likely shift probabilities as new storm tracks emerge.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
Greater than 8 49%
8 48%
6 46%
7 46%
BARU
BARU
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
36%
5
45%
6
46%
7
46%
8
48%
Greater than 8
49%
Greater than 8 49%
8 48%
6 46%
7 46%
BARU
BARU
Jun 30, 2027
Fewer than 5
$0 Vol.
36%
5
$0 Vol.
45%
6
$0 Vol.
46%
7
$0 Vol.
46%
8
$0 Vol.
48%
Greater than 8
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).The closely matched market-implied odds around 7–8 landfalls reflect an above-average 2026 Northwest Pacific typhoon season driven by a developing El Niño, which favors more tropical cyclone formation and greater potential for western tracks toward China. As of early August, at least three confirmed landfalls have occurred—Maysak in Hainan (July 3), Bavi in Zhejiang (July 12), and Noul in Guangdong (July 26)—following an unusually active first half with 12 named systems by mid-June. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and seasonal models project 24–29 total formations for the year, with 7–9 expected to reach the mainland, exceeding the long-term average of roughly seven. Key differentiating factors for traders include steering patterns influenced by the monsoon trough and subtropical ridge, remaining peak-season genesis (August–October), and model consensus on landfall probability versus recurvature. Additional data releases from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and China Meteorological Administration through the autumn will likely shift probabilities as new storm tracks emerge.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).The closely matched market-implied odds around 7–8 landfalls reflect an above-average 2026 Northwest Pacific typhoon season driven by a developing El Niño, which favors more tropical cyclone formation and greater potential for western tracks toward China. As of early August, at least three confirmed landfalls have occurred—Maysak in Hainan (July 3), Bavi in Zhejiang (July 12), and Noul in Guangdong (July 26)—following an unusually active first half with 12 named systems by mid-June. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and seasonal models project 24–29 total formations for the year, with 7–9 expected to reach the mainland, exceeding the long-term average of roughly seven. Key differentiating factors for traders include steering patterns influenced by the monsoon trough and subtropical ridge, remaining peak-season genesis (August–October), and model consensus on landfall probability versus recurvature. Additional data releases from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and China Meteorological Administration through the autumn will likely shift probabilities as new storm tracks emerge.
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Track Dataset update for 2026.
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
All landfalling tropical cyclones listed by the CMA on that page count toward the total, regardless of their intensity category at landfall (tropical depression, tropical storm, severe tropical storm, typhoon, severe typhoon, or super typhoon). What constitutes a landfall in China (including which mainland and island locations qualify) is determined solely by the CMA's records on that page. Each tropical cyclone is counted once toward the total, regardless of how many separate times it makes landfall.
One bracket will resolve "Yes" and all others "No".
If the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is inaccessible or the 2026 Best Track Dataset has not been updated by June 30, 2027, resolution will instead be based on the number of tropical cyclones reported by China as making landfall for the 2026 season - counted on the same all-intensity basis - in the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Session final report for the 2026 season (https://www.typhooncommittee.org).
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Aug 5, 2026, 2:44 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.htmlResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market-implied odds around 7–8 landfalls reflect an above-average 2026 Northwest Pacific typhoon season driven by a developing El Niño, which favors more tropical cyclone formation and greater potential for western tracks toward China. As of early August, at least three confirmed landfalls have occurred—Maysak in Hainan (July 3), Bavi in Zhejiang (July 12), and Noul in Guangdong (July 26)—following an unusually active first half with 12 named systems by mid-June. Official outlooks from China’s National Climate Center and seasonal models project 24–29 total formations for the year, with 7–9 expected to reach the mainland, exceeding the long-term average of roughly seven. Key differentiating factors for traders include steering patterns influenced by the monsoon trough and subtropical ridge, remaining peak-season genesis (August–October), and model consensus on landfall probability versus recurvature. Additional data releases from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and China Meteorological Administration through the autumn will likely shift probabilities as new storm tracks emerge.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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