Emmanuel Macron’s second and final term ends in May 2027, leaving limited political bandwidth and institutional incentive to convene a nationwide referendum under Article 11 or related procedures before year-end. Recent court rulings striking down flagship measures, such as the under-15 social media ban, prompted calls from allies like Gabriel Attal for direct public consultation, yet the Élysée has instead directed the government to prepare revised legislation targeting implementation in 2027. Public opinion polls show broad support for expanded use of referendums to bypass institutional blocks, but no presidential decree or timetable has emerged amid a fragmented National Assembly and the accelerating 2027 campaign season. Traders therefore price the absence of any imminent catalyst at 87 percent for “No.”