Trump's second term shows no public signals of resignation intent as of mid-2026, aligning with the strong trader consensus against the outcome by year-end. Historical precedent favors incumbents completing terms absent extraordinary pressure, and no major legislative, health, or legal developments have emerged to shift this baseline. The 96.8% implied probability on "No" reflects the market's assessment that structural barriers—including party dynamics, electoral incentives, and the absence of resignation triggers—remain firmly in place. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the odds include sudden health events requiring medical intervention, successful high-stakes legal proceedings producing new pressure, or unforeseen diplomatic crises prompting a strategic exit, though each would require rapid confirmation to move probabilities before the December 31, 2026 resolution date.