Tight U.S. cattle inventories, at their lowest level in 75 years following multi-year drought and elevated feed costs, remain the dominant driver of elevated ground beef prices near $6.83 per pound as of mid-2026. USDA forecasts project a 10.7% rise in beef and veal CPI for the year, supported by robust consumer demand and constrained domestic production, with imports of lean trim providing partial offset for ground beef blends. Wholesale values continue near record highs for the season, while farm-level steer prices are expected to average around $251 per cwt. Traders are monitoring herd rebuilding signals, summer weather impacts on feed costs, and any shifts in import volumes or retail demand that could moderate the trajectory into year-end.