Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showed a 1.5% quarter-over-quarter rebound from a 0.6% contraction, supported by industrial activity and World Cup-related spending, yet this follows weak domestic demand and has not altered downward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts now clustered at 1.2-1.5%. Analyst projections from BBVA, OECD, and others cite subdued investment, rising informality in employment, and policy uncertainty as key drags, with Banxico's easing path and Treasury yield movements adding to rate-sensitive consumption dynamics. Evenly matched market-implied odds across growth buckets reflect this elevated uncertainty around Q3 momentum, where nearshoring inflows and U.S. demand provide upside potential while fiscal restraint and inflation persistence around 4% act as offsets ahead of September data releases.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui<0.5% 38%
0.5-1.0% 38%
1.0-1.5% 38%
1.5-2.0% 38%
BARU
BARU
Oct 30, 2026
<0.5%
38%
0.5-1.0%
38%
1.0-1.5%
38%
1.5-2.0%
38%
2.0-2.5%
38%
2.5-3.0%
38%
3.0-3.5%
38%
3.5%+
38%
<0.5% 38%
0.5-1.0% 38%
1.0-1.5% 38%
1.5-2.0% 38%
BARU
BARU
Oct 30, 2026
<0.5%
$1 Vol.
38%
0.5-1.0%
$0 Vol.
38%
1.0-1.5%
$0 Vol.
38%
1.5-2.0%
$0 Vol.
38%
2.0-2.5%
$0 Vol.
38%
2.5-3.0%
$0 Vol.
38%
3.0-3.5%
$0 Vol.
38%
3.5%+
$0 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showed a 1.5% quarter-over-quarter rebound from a 0.6% contraction, supported by industrial activity and World Cup-related spending, yet this follows weak domestic demand and has not altered downward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts now clustered at 1.2-1.5%. Analyst projections from BBVA, OECD, and others cite subdued investment, rising informality in employment, and policy uncertainty as key drags, with Banxico's easing path and Treasury yield movements adding to rate-sensitive consumption dynamics. Evenly matched market-implied odds across growth buckets reflect this elevated uncertainty around Q3 momentum, where nearshoring inflows and U.S. demand provide upside potential while fiscal restraint and inflation persistence around 4% act as offsets ahead of September data releases.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$1Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showed a 1.5% quarter-over-quarter rebound from a 0.6% contraction, supported by industrial activity and World Cup-related spending, yet this follows weak domestic demand and has not altered downward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts now clustered at 1.2-1.5%. Analyst projections from BBVA, OECD, and others cite subdued investment, rising informality in employment, and policy uncertainty as key drags, with Banxico's easing path and Treasury yield movements adding to rate-sensitive consumption dynamics. Evenly matched market-implied odds across growth buckets reflect this elevated uncertainty around Q3 momentum, where nearshoring inflows and U.S. demand provide upside potential while fiscal restraint and inflation persistence around 4% act as offsets ahead of September data releases.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showed a 1.5% quarter-over-quarter rebound from a 0.6% contraction, supported by industrial activity and World Cup-related spending, yet this follows weak domestic demand and has not altered downward revisions to full-year 2026 forecasts now clustered at 1.2-1.5%. Analyst projections from BBVA, OECD, and others cite subdued investment, rising informality in employment, and policy uncertainty as key drags, with Banxico's easing path and Treasury yield movements adding to rate-sensitive consumption dynamics. Evenly matched market-implied odds across growth buckets reflect this elevated uncertainty around Q3 momentum, where nearshoring inflows and U.S. demand provide upside potential while fiscal restraint and inflation persistence around 4% act as offsets ahead of September data releases.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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