UK GDP growth expectations for Q3 2026 remain subdued amid elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East supply disruptions, which are feeding into higher input costs and pressuring consumer and business spending. Q1 2026 expanded 0.6% QoQ while Q2 momentum appears weaker, with Bank of England forecasts showing CPI inflation rising toward 3.2% by year-end and policy rates held at 3.75% to contain upside risks. The closely matched market-implied probabilities across low-positive and negative ranges reflect uncertainty over the duration of geopolitical effects versus resilient services output and any fiscal support. Key near-term catalysts include the August and September inflation releases plus the next Monetary Policy Committee decision, which could clarify whether growth stalls near zero or turns negative.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui0.2–0.3% 53%
0.0–0.1% 48%
0.4–0.5% 45%
0.6–0.7% 38%
BARU
BARU
Nov 12, 2026
Negative
37%
0.0–0.1%
48%
0.2–0.3%
53%
0.4–0.5%
45%
0.6–0.7%
38%
0.8–0.9%
7%
1.0%+
7%
0.2–0.3% 53%
0.0–0.1% 48%
0.4–0.5% 45%
0.6–0.7% 38%
BARU
BARU
Nov 12, 2026
Negative
$0 Vol.
37%
0.0–0.1%
$0 Vol.
48%
0.2–0.3%
$0 Vol.
53%
0.4–0.5%
$0 Vol.
45%
0.6–0.7%
$0 Vol.
38%
0.8–0.9%
$0 Vol.
7%
1.0%+
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.UK GDP growth expectations for Q3 2026 remain subdued amid elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East supply disruptions, which are feeding into higher input costs and pressuring consumer and business spending. Q1 2026 expanded 0.6% QoQ while Q2 momentum appears weaker, with Bank of England forecasts showing CPI inflation rising toward 3.2% by year-end and policy rates held at 3.75% to contain upside risks. The closely matched market-implied probabilities across low-positive and negative ranges reflect uncertainty over the duration of geopolitical effects versus resilient services output and any fiscal support. Key near-term catalysts include the August and September inflation releases plus the next Monetary Policy Committee decision, which could clarify whether growth stalls near zero or turns negative.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.UK GDP growth expectations for Q3 2026 remain subdued amid elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East supply disruptions, which are feeding into higher input costs and pressuring consumer and business spending. Q1 2026 expanded 0.6% QoQ while Q2 momentum appears weaker, with Bank of England forecasts showing CPI inflation rising toward 3.2% by year-end and policy rates held at 3.75% to contain upside risks. The closely matched market-implied probabilities across low-positive and negative ranges reflect uncertainty over the duration of geopolitical effects versus resilient services output and any fiscal support. Key near-term catalysts include the August and September inflation releases plus the next Monetary Policy Committee decision, which could clarify whether growth stalls near zero or turns negative.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...UK GDP growth expectations for Q3 2026 remain subdued amid elevated energy prices stemming from Middle East supply disruptions, which are feeding into higher input costs and pressuring consumer and business spending. Q1 2026 expanded 0.6% QoQ while Q2 momentum appears weaker, with Bank of England forecasts showing CPI inflation rising toward 3.2% by year-end and policy rates held at 3.75% to contain upside risks. The closely matched market-implied probabilities across low-positive and negative ranges reflect uncertainty over the duration of geopolitical effects versus resilient services output and any fiscal support. Key near-term catalysts include the August and September inflation releases plus the next Monetary Policy Committee decision, which could clarify whether growth stalls near zero or turns negative.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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