Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below expectations and Q1’s 2.1%, has tempered near-term momentum for Q3 amid persistent inflation pressures from energy shocks and tariffs pushing PCE above 3.4%. Trader consensus reflects balanced risks between resilient labor markets—unemployment near 4.4% with modest payroll gains—and softening consumer spending offset by AI-driven investment. With market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 2–3% ranges, uncertainty centers on Fed policy at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate, potential rate hikes, and fiscal tailwinds fading against trade headwinds. Upcoming data releases and September FOMC decisions could shift these closely contested odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui≥3.0% 45%
2.5–3.0% 44%
2.0–2.5% 43%
<0.5% 40%
BARU
BARU
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
40%
0.5–1.0%
37%
1.0–1.5%
38%
1.5–2.0%
38%
2.0–2.5%
43%
2.5–3.0%
44%
≥3.0%
45%
≥3.0% 45%
2.5–3.0% 44%
2.0–2.5% 43%
<0.5% 40%
BARU
BARU
Oct 29, 2026
<0.5%
$0 Vol.
40%
0.5–1.0%
$0 Vol.
37%
1.0–1.5%
$0 Vol.
38%
1.5–2.0%
$0 Vol.
38%
2.0–2.5%
$0 Vol.
43%
2.5–3.0%
$0 Vol.
44%
≥3.0%
$0 Vol.
45%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below expectations and Q1’s 2.1%, has tempered near-term momentum for Q3 amid persistent inflation pressures from energy shocks and tariffs pushing PCE above 3.4%. Trader consensus reflects balanced risks between resilient labor markets—unemployment near 4.4% with modest payroll gains—and softening consumer spending offset by AI-driven investment. With market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 2–3% ranges, uncertainty centers on Fed policy at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate, potential rate hikes, and fiscal tailwinds fading against trade headwinds. Upcoming data releases and September FOMC decisions could shift these closely contested odds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below expectations and Q1’s 2.1%, has tempered near-term momentum for Q3 amid persistent inflation pressures from energy shocks and tariffs pushing PCE above 3.4%. Trader consensus reflects balanced risks between resilient labor markets—unemployment near 4.4% with modest payroll gains—and softening consumer spending offset by AI-driven investment. With market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 2–3% ranges, uncertainty centers on Fed policy at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate, potential rate hikes, and fiscal tailwinds fading against trade headwinds. Upcoming data releases and September FOMC decisions could shift these closely contested odds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 29, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, below expectations and Q1’s 2.1%, has tempered near-term momentum for Q3 amid persistent inflation pressures from energy shocks and tariffs pushing PCE above 3.4%. Trader consensus reflects balanced risks between resilient labor markets—unemployment near 4.4% with modest payroll gains—and softening consumer spending offset by AI-driven investment. With market-implied probabilities clustered tightly around 2–3% ranges, uncertainty centers on Fed policy at the 3.50–3.75% funds rate, potential rate hikes, and fiscal tailwinds fading against trade headwinds. Upcoming data releases and September FOMC decisions could shift these closely contested odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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