The Bank of Russia’s September 11 hold at 14%—its first pause after ten straight cuts—has anchored trader expectations for the October 23 meeting, as recent inflation data showed annual CPI rising to 6.3% in August amid fuel-price spikes from Ukrainian strikes on refineries and related supply disruptions. Officials highlighted accelerated underlying price pressures from temporary capacity reductions and noted that second-round effects require continued vigilance, even as aggregate demand remains restrained and the economy expands at a moderate pace. Fiscal easing and budget-deficit dynamics add pro-inflationary risks, while the central bank’s updated forecasts keep 2026 inflation at 6–7% before a return to the 4% target in 2027. These factors support the current implied probabilities favoring no change, with scope for a modest cut only if disinflation resumes clearly before the meeting.