Traders assign an 8.5% implied probability to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for such an operation in the coming months. Beijing continues to favor coercive diplomacy, gray-zone pressure, and engagement with Taiwan’s opposition parties ahead of future elections, while recent PLA live-fire drills and ADIZ activity remain consistent with longstanding patterns rather than imminent conflict preparation. U.S. assessments and regional reporting highlight ongoing PLA readiness gaps and the high costs of potential U.S. and allied intervention. Taiwan’s ongoing Han Kuang exercises, which test reservist mobilization and supply resilience, underscore defensive preparations but have not triggered corresponding escalatory signals from the mainland. Late developments within the resolution window could still alter trajectories, though structural and timing barriers currently dominate market pricing.