**Strong political, regulatory, and supply constraints make actual purchases in 2026 unlikely despite Apple’s testing and lobbying efforts.** Apple faces a severe DRAM shortage driven by AI demand reallocating capacity at Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, which has forced price hikes on Macs, iPads, and other products. In response, the company began early testing of CXMT DRAM for China-market devices and lobbied the Trump administration for political cover, given CXMT’s placement on the Pentagon’s 1260H list of alleged Chinese military-linked firms. However, CXMT remains fully booked through at least 2027 with domestic customers (including a multi-billion-dollar Tencent deal), has rejected Apple’s requests for discounted pricing, and prioritizes Chinese demand. Export controls limit any potential use to off-the-shelf components without custom specifications, while bipartisan congressional opposition and reputational risks deter deeper engagement. These barriers—combined with CXMT’s limited spare capacity and the timeline for qualification—support the market’s 72.5% “No” consensus on purchases occurring in 2026. Key near-term catalysts include any White House exemption decision or confirmed volume commitments before year-end.