Ongoing mediation by Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman has kept indirect diplomatic channels open despite the mid-August expiration of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which aimed to convert a fragile ceasefire into a permanent accord on Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz transit. Recent developments include Iran's president defending the framework as the best path forward, U.S. imposition of additional sanctions, and shuttle diplomacy involving Pakistani military officials in Tehran alongside Omani talks on Hormuz arrangements. These factors sustain trader focus on whether high-level U.S. or Iranian officials will participate in any round before year-end, amid persistent gaps over nuclear inspections, Lebanon deconfliction, and enforcement mechanisms that have repeatedly disrupted prior technical sessions.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$304,963 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Steve Witkoff
43%
Jared Kushner
41%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
42%
Abbas Araghchi
34%
Ishaq Dar
31%
J.D. Vance
31%
Kazem Gharibabadi
24%
Nick Stewart
20%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
18%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
17%
Rafael Grossi
17%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
15%
Donald Trump
14%
Marco Rubio
13%
Masoud Pezeshkian
13%
Ahmad Vahidi
11%
Pete Hegseth
9%
Esmail Qaani
7%
Mojtaba Khamenei
5%
$304,963 Vol.
Steve Witkoff
$17,730 Vol.
43%
Jared Kushner
$14,387 Vol.
41%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
$11,943 Vol.
42%
Abbas Araghchi
$7,573 Vol.
34%
Ishaq Dar
$17,540 Vol.
31%
J.D. Vance
$20,976 Vol.
31%
Kazem Gharibabadi
$16,478 Vol.
24%
Nick Stewart
$11,128 Vol.
20%
Majid Takht-Ravanchi
$16,946 Vol.
18%
Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi
$29,145 Vol.
17%
Rafael Grossi
$18,288 Vol.
17%
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani
$28,743 Vol.
15%
Donald Trump
$7,456 Vol.
14%
Marco Rubio
$13,311 Vol.
13%
Masoud Pezeshkian
$19,279 Vol.
13%
Ahmad Vahidi
$7,856 Vol.
11%
Pete Hegseth
$15,413 Vol.
9%
Esmail Qaani
$10,890 Vol.
7%
Mojtaba Khamenei
$19,880 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing mediation by Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman has kept indirect diplomatic channels open despite the mid-August expiration of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which aimed to convert a fragile ceasefire into a permanent accord on Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz transit. Recent developments include Iran's president defending the framework as the best path forward, U.S. imposition of additional sanctions, and shuttle diplomacy involving Pakistani military officials in Tehran alongside Omani talks on Hormuz arrangements. These factors sustain trader focus on whether high-level U.S. or Iranian officials will participate in any round before year-end, amid persistent gaps over nuclear inspections, Lebanon deconfliction, and enforcement mechanisms that have repeatedly disrupted prior technical sessions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
Volume
$304,963Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing mediation by Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman has kept indirect diplomatic channels open despite the mid-August expiration of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which aimed to convert a fragile ceasefire into a permanent accord on Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz transit. Recent developments include Iran's president defending the framework as the best path forward, U.S. imposition of additional sanctions, and shuttle diplomacy involving Pakistani military officials in Tehran alongside Omani talks on Hormuz arrangements. These factors sustain trader focus on whether high-level U.S. or Iranian officials will participate in any round before year-end, amid persistent gaps over nuclear inspections, Lebanon deconfliction, and enforcement mechanisms that have repeatedly disrupted prior technical sessions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments.
Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time.
Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating.
If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$304,963Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 7:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing mediation by Qatar, Pakistan, and Oman has kept indirect diplomatic channels open despite the mid-August expiration of the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding, which aimed to convert a fragile ceasefire into a permanent accord on Iran's nuclear program, sanctions relief, and Strait of Hormuz transit. Recent developments include Iran's president defending the framework as the best path forward, U.S. imposition of additional sanctions, and shuttle diplomacy involving Pakistani military officials in Tehran alongside Omani talks on Hormuz arrangements. These factors sustain trader focus on whether high-level U.S. or Iranian officials will participate in any round before year-end, amid persistent gaps over nuclear inspections, Lebanon deconfliction, and enforcement mechanisms that have repeatedly disrupted prior technical sessions.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan