As of early August 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced only two named storms—Arthur in mid-June and Bertha in July—both remaining below hurricane strength with peak winds of 45–60 mph, leaving Cristobal as the next name in sequence. NOAA’s May outlook for a below-normal season (3–6 hurricanes total) and the absence of any Category 1 or stronger systems through early August align with climatology showing the first Atlantic hurricane typically forming near August 11. Current steering patterns and suppressed activity have kept early development weak, positioning Cristobal at the highest market-implied probability while traders assign meaningful odds to Dolly or Edouard if the next system intensifies rapidly or if the season’s first hurricane arrives later amid ongoing below-average conditions. Updated National Hurricane Center forecasts and model consensus in the coming weeks will refine these probabilities ahead of the seasonal peak.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWhat will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
Edouard 33%
Dolly 11%
Paulette 10%
Marco 9%
BARU
BARU
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
43%
Dolly
30%
Edouard
19%
Fay
5%
Gonzalo
4%
Hanna
5%
Isaias
5%
Josephine
5%
Kyle
4%
Leah
3%
Marco
9%
Nana
9%
Omar
9%
Paulette
10%
Rene
5%
Sally
3%
Teddy
5%
Vicky
8%
Wilfred
5%
Other
4%
Edouard 33%
Dolly 11%
Paulette 10%
Marco 9%
BARU
BARU
Dec 1, 2026
Cristobal
$162 Vol.
43%
Dolly
$86 Vol.
30%
Edouard
$222 Vol.
19%
Fay
$72 Vol.
5%
Gonzalo
$72 Vol.
4%
Hanna
$73 Vol.
5%
Isaias
$88 Vol.
5%
Josephine
$55 Vol.
5%
Kyle
$94 Vol.
4%
Leah
$59 Vol.
3%
Marco
$107 Vol.
9%
Nana
$51 Vol.
9%
Omar
$63 Vol.
9%
Paulette
$67 Vol.
10%
Rene
$63 Vol.
5%
Sally
$131 Vol.
3%
Teddy
$63 Vol.
5%
Vicky
$90 Vol.
8%
Wilfred
$118 Vol.
5%
Other
$63 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. As of early August 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced only two named storms—Arthur in mid-June and Bertha in July—both remaining below hurricane strength with peak winds of 45–60 mph, leaving Cristobal as the next name in sequence. NOAA’s May outlook for a below-normal season (3–6 hurricanes total) and the absence of any Category 1 or stronger systems through early August align with climatology showing the first Atlantic hurricane typically forming near August 11. Current steering patterns and suppressed activity have kept early development weak, positioning Cristobal at the highest market-implied probability while traders assign meaningful odds to Dolly or Edouard if the next system intensifies rapidly or if the season’s first hurricane arrives later amid ongoing below-average conditions. Updated National Hurricane Center forecasts and model consensus in the coming weeks will refine these probabilities ahead of the seasonal peak.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET
Volume
$1,801Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 2, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. As of early August 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced only two named storms—Arthur in mid-June and Bertha in July—both remaining below hurricane strength with peak winds of 45–60 mph, leaving Cristobal as the next name in sequence. NOAA’s May outlook for a below-normal season (3–6 hurricanes total) and the absence of any Category 1 or stronger systems through early August align with climatology showing the first Atlantic hurricane typically forming near August 11. Current steering patterns and suppressed activity have kept early development weak, positioning Cristobal at the highest market-implied probability while traders assign meaningful odds to Dolly or Edouard if the next system intensifies rapidly or if the season’s first hurricane arrives later amid ongoing below-average conditions. Updated National Hurricane Center forecasts and model consensus in the coming weeks will refine these probabilities ahead of the seasonal peak.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.
All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volume
$1,801Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 2, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...As of early August 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced only two named storms—Arthur in mid-June and Bertha in July—both remaining below hurricane strength with peak winds of 45–60 mph, leaving Cristobal as the next name in sequence. NOAA’s May outlook for a below-normal season (3–6 hurricanes total) and the absence of any Category 1 or stronger systems through early August align with climatology showing the first Atlantic hurricane typically forming near August 11. Current steering patterns and suppressed activity have kept early development weak, positioning Cristobal at the highest market-implied probability while traders assign meaningful odds to Dolly or Edouard if the next system intensifies rapidly or if the season’s first hurricane arrives later amid ongoing below-average conditions. Updated National Hurricane Center forecasts and model consensus in the coming weeks will refine these probabilities ahead of the seasonal peak.
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