Maryland's 3rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent support for the party in recent cycles. Incumbent Sarah Elfreth secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary, positioning her as the clear general election frontrunner against Republican nominee Bernard Flowers. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 95 percent, consistent with the seat's history as a safe hold and limited Republican infrastructure in the district. The commanding position stems from structural advantages including voter registration imbalances, fundraising edges, and absence of competitive polling shifts since the primary. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain narrow and include an unexpected national political realignment, late-cycle candidate withdrawal, or unforeseen legal or ethical developments affecting the incumbent before November.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiMD-03 House Election Winner
MD-03 House Election Winner
$30,509 Vol.
$30,509 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
6%
$30,509 Vol.
$30,509 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$20,807 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$9,702 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 3rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent support for the party in recent cycles. Incumbent Sarah Elfreth secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary, positioning her as the clear general election frontrunner against Republican nominee Bernard Flowers. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 95 percent, consistent with the seat's history as a safe hold and limited Republican infrastructure in the district. The commanding position stems from structural advantages including voter registration imbalances, fundraising edges, and absence of competitive polling shifts since the primary. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain narrow and include an unexpected national political realignment, late-cycle candidate withdrawal, or unforeseen legal or ethical developments affecting the incumbent before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$30,509Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 3rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent support for the party in recent cycles. Incumbent Sarah Elfreth secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary, positioning her as the clear general election frontrunner against Republican nominee Bernard Flowers. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 95 percent, consistent with the seat's history as a safe hold and limited Republican infrastructure in the district. The commanding position stems from structural advantages including voter registration imbalances, fundraising edges, and absence of competitive polling shifts since the primary. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain narrow and include an unexpected national political realignment, late-cycle candidate withdrawal, or unforeseen legal or ethical developments affecting the incumbent before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$30,509Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland's 3rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent support for the party in recent cycles. Incumbent Sarah Elfreth secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary, positioning her as the clear general election frontrunner against Republican nominee Bernard Flowers. Traders price the Democratic outcome near 95 percent, consistent with the seat's history as a safe hold and limited Republican infrastructure in the district. The commanding position stems from structural advantages including voter registration imbalances, fundraising edges, and absence of competitive polling shifts since the primary. Scenarios that could narrow the gap remain narrow and include an unexpected national political realignment, late-cycle candidate withdrawal, or unforeseen legal or ethical developments affecting the incumbent before November.
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