A crowded field in Florida’s redrawn 9th Congressional District has produced a tight Republican primary, with recent Victory Insights polling showing Thomas Chalifoux, Ben Butler, Jorge Martinez, and Dan Green statistically tied among likely voters and a large undecided share. Redistricting shifted the seat toward stronger Republican performance, drawing multiple candidates including Chalifoux’s repeat bid, Butler’s agricultural background, Martinez’s business experience, and Green’s military and teaching record. The absence of a dominant frontrunner or major endorsements has kept probabilities clustered near 23-28 percent. With the August 18 primary days away, final turnout among key voter blocs, late debate impact, or last-minute campaign developments could still consolidate support and shift the outcome.