Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, with a partisan voting index around R+18 and prior presidential margins exceeding 19 points for the GOP. Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary by defeating incumbent Thomas Massie with backing from President Trump and substantial outside spending, while Democrat Melissa Strange won her party's primary. All major forecasters rate the general election as Solid or Safe Republican, projecting double-digit margins consistent with district fundamentals and turnout patterns. The 92.5% Republican implied probability reflects this structural advantage and limited time remaining before the November 3 vote. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance, though historical base rates in similar districts make such shifts improbable.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiKY-04 House Election Winner
KY-04 House Election Winner
$34,317 Vol.
$34,317 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
8%
$34,317 Vol.
$34,317 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$24,877 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$9,440 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, with a partisan voting index around R+18 and prior presidential margins exceeding 19 points for the GOP. Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary by defeating incumbent Thomas Massie with backing from President Trump and substantial outside spending, while Democrat Melissa Strange won her party's primary. All major forecasters rate the general election as Solid or Safe Republican, projecting double-digit margins consistent with district fundamentals and turnout patterns. The 92.5% Republican implied probability reflects this structural advantage and limited time remaining before the November 3 vote. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance, though historical base rates in similar districts make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$34,317Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, with a partisan voting index around R+18 and prior presidential margins exceeding 19 points for the GOP. Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary by defeating incumbent Thomas Massie with backing from President Trump and substantial outside spending, while Democrat Melissa Strange won her party's primary. All major forecasters rate the general election as Solid or Safe Republican, projecting double-digit margins consistent with district fundamentals and turnout patterns. The 92.5% Republican implied probability reflects this structural advantage and limited time remaining before the November 3 vote. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance, though historical base rates in similar districts make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,317Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, with a partisan voting index around R+18 and prior presidential margins exceeding 19 points for the GOP. Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary by defeating incumbent Thomas Massie with backing from President Trump and substantial outside spending, while Democrat Melissa Strange won her party's primary. All major forecasters rate the general election as Solid or Safe Republican, projecting double-digit margins consistent with district fundamentals and turnout patterns. The 92.5% Republican implied probability reflects this structural advantage and limited time remaining before the November 3 vote. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic performance, though historical base rates in similar districts make such shifts improbable.
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