Recent geopolitical tensions and conflict-related disruptions in the Persian Gulf have compressed weekly vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz well below pre-2026 baselines of roughly 90–140 ships per day, elevating war-risk insurance premiums and deterring commercial traffic. With Polymarket bins for 25–29, 30–34, and 35–39 ships clustered within a few percentage points, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether the week of September 14 will see modest stabilization, incremental reopening signals, or renewed restrictions tied to ongoing hostilities. Oil prices near $104 per barrel Brent and sparse recent daily counts underscore the sensitivity of volumes to any shift in regional security or maritime routing permissions, while the narrow spreads highlight how near-term diplomatic or military developments could swing outcomes across these adjacent ranges.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 14?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 14?
20-24 23%
30-34 23%
35-39 23%
25-29 22%
BARU
BARU
Sep 20, 2026
<20
14%
20-24
23%
25-29
22%
30-34
23%
35-39
23%
40+
8%
20-24 23%
30-34 23%
35-39 23%
25-29 22%
BARU
BARU
Sep 20, 2026
<20
$47 Vol.
14%
20-24
$0 Vol.
23%
25-29
$0 Vol.
22%
30-34
$0 Vol.
23%
35-39
$0 Vol.
23%
40+
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent geopolitical tensions and conflict-related disruptions in the Persian Gulf have compressed weekly vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz well below pre-2026 baselines of roughly 90–140 ships per day, elevating war-risk insurance premiums and deterring commercial traffic. With Polymarket bins for 25–29, 30–34, and 35–39 ships clustered within a few percentage points, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether the week of September 14 will see modest stabilization, incremental reopening signals, or renewed restrictions tied to ongoing hostilities. Oil prices near $104 per barrel Brent and sparse recent daily counts underscore the sensitivity of volumes to any shift in regional security or maritime routing permissions, while the narrow spreads highlight how near-term diplomatic or military developments could swing outcomes across these adjacent ranges.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 11, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$47Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 11, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent geopolitical tensions and conflict-related disruptions in the Persian Gulf have compressed weekly vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz well below pre-2026 baselines of roughly 90–140 ships per day, elevating war-risk insurance premiums and deterring commercial traffic. With Polymarket bins for 25–29, 30–34, and 35–39 ships clustered within a few percentage points, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether the week of September 14 will see modest stabilization, incremental reopening signals, or renewed restrictions tied to ongoing hostilities. Oil prices near $104 per barrel Brent and sparse recent daily counts underscore the sensitivity of volumes to any shift in regional security or maritime routing permissions, while the narrow spreads highlight how near-term diplomatic or military developments could swing outcomes across these adjacent ranges.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 14, 2026, through September 20, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$47Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 20, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 11, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent geopolitical tensions and conflict-related disruptions in the Persian Gulf have compressed weekly vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz well below pre-2026 baselines of roughly 90–140 ships per day, elevating war-risk insurance premiums and deterring commercial traffic. With Polymarket bins for 25–29, 30–34, and 35–39 ships clustered within a few percentage points, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over whether the week of September 14 will see modest stabilization, incremental reopening signals, or renewed restrictions tied to ongoing hostilities. Oil prices near $104 per barrel Brent and sparse recent daily counts underscore the sensitivity of volumes to any shift in regional security or maritime routing permissions, while the narrow spreads highlight how near-term diplomatic or military developments could swing outcomes across these adjacent ranges.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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