Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict, including renewed blockades, Iranian blacklisting of noncompliant vessels, and ongoing attacks on shipping, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits sharply suppressed. Recent data from Kpler and UKMTO show weekly commodity vessel crossings in the 70–120 range in mid-to-late August—well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 130–140 per week—with many movements classified as “dark” due to disabled AIS transponders and route uncertainty. Escalating US sanctions and Iranian enforcement of unilateral routing rules have raised insurance costs and operational risks, deterring commercial traffic and favoring shuttle tanker or ship-to-ship networks. These dynamics underpin the 79% market-implied probability for the 20–39 outcome for the week of August 31, reflecting trader consensus on sustained low volumes amid unresolved hostilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?
20-39 79%
<20 16%
40-59 4.8%
60-79 <1%
$37,202 Vol.
$37,202 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<20
16%
20-39
79%
40-59
5%
60-79
1%
80+
<1%
20-39 79%
<20 16%
40-59 4.8%
60-79 <1%
$37,202 Vol.
$37,202 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
<20
$9,018 Vol.
16%
20-39
$21,317 Vol.
79%
40-59
$4,215 Vol.
5%
60-79
$1,509 Vol.
1%
80+
$1,144 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict, including renewed blockades, Iranian blacklisting of noncompliant vessels, and ongoing attacks on shipping, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits sharply suppressed. Recent data from Kpler and UKMTO show weekly commodity vessel crossings in the 70–120 range in mid-to-late August—well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 130–140 per week—with many movements classified as “dark” due to disabled AIS transponders and route uncertainty. Escalating US sanctions and Iranian enforcement of unilateral routing rules have raised insurance costs and operational risks, deterring commercial traffic and favoring shuttle tanker or ship-to-ship networks. These dynamics underpin the 79% market-implied probability for the 20–39 outcome for the week of August 31, reflecting trader consensus on sustained low volumes amid unresolved hostilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$37,202Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 6, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict, including renewed blockades, Iranian blacklisting of noncompliant vessels, and ongoing attacks on shipping, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits sharply suppressed. Recent data from Kpler and UKMTO show weekly commodity vessel crossings in the 70–120 range in mid-to-late August—well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 130–140 per week—with many movements classified as “dark” due to disabled AIS transponders and route uncertainty. Escalating US sanctions and Iranian enforcement of unilateral routing rules have raised insurance costs and operational risks, deterring commercial traffic and favoring shuttle tanker or ship-to-ship networks. These dynamics underpin the 79% market-implied probability for the 20–39 outcome for the week of August 31, reflecting trader consensus on sustained low volumes amid unresolved hostilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$37,202Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 6, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran conflict, including renewed blockades, Iranian blacklisting of noncompliant vessels, and ongoing attacks on shipping, have kept Strait of Hormuz transits sharply suppressed. Recent data from Kpler and UKMTO show weekly commodity vessel crossings in the 70–120 range in mid-to-late August—well below the pre-conflict baseline of roughly 130–140 per week—with many movements classified as “dark” due to disabled AIS transponders and route uncertainty. Escalating US sanctions and Iranian enforcement of unilateral routing rules have raised insurance costs and operational risks, deterring commercial traffic and favoring shuttle tanker or ship-to-ship networks. These dynamics underpin the 79% market-implied probability for the 20–39 outcome for the week of August 31, reflecting trader consensus on sustained low volumes amid unresolved hostilities.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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