**Heightened geopolitical risks from the Houthi naval blockade announcement targeting Saudi-linked vessels around July 20 drove sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits that week.** Shipping data showed daily commodity ship crossings falling to averages near 31–33, with notable diversions, turnarounds, and slower speeds as carriers avoided the strait amid threats and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. This produced a weekly total well below the recent July average of roughly 40 vessels per day, reflecting immediate rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and reduced tanker and bulker activity. The 99% market-implied probability on fewer than 220 transits captures this rapid supply-chain adjustment, consistent with observed declines of 20–40% in the days following the escalation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include final data revisions incorporating additional dark or sanctioned transits, or any last-minute confirmations of higher untracked movements that push the total into the 220–229 range.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 20?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 20?
<220 99.0%
220-229 <1%
230-239 <1%
240-249 <1%
$18,395 Vol.
$18,395 Vol.
Jul 26, 2026
<220
99%
220-229
1%
230-239
<1%
240-249
<1%
250-259
<1%
260+
<1%
<220 99.0%
220-229 <1%
230-239 <1%
240-249 <1%
$18,395 Vol.
$18,395 Vol.
Jul 26, 2026
<220
$9,596 Vol.
99%
220-229
$2,731 Vol.
1%
230-239
$1,282 Vol.
<1%
240-249
$1,530 Vol.
<1%
250-259
$1,298 Vol.
<1%
260+
$1,957 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
**Heightened geopolitical risks from the Houthi naval blockade announcement targeting Saudi-linked vessels around July 20 drove sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits that week.** Shipping data showed daily commodity ship crossings falling to averages near 31–33, with notable diversions, turnarounds, and slower speeds as carriers avoided the strait amid threats and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. This produced a weekly total well below the recent July average of roughly 40 vessels per day, reflecting immediate rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and reduced tanker and bulker activity. The 99% market-implied probability on fewer than 220 transits captures this rapid supply-chain adjustment, consistent with observed declines of 20–40% in the days following the escalation.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include final data revisions incorporating additional dark or sanctioned transits, or any last-minute confirmations of higher untracked movements that push the total into the 220–229 range.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 13, 2026, 11:14 PM ET
Volume
$18,395Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 26, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 13, 2026, 11:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
**Heightened geopolitical risks from the Houthi naval blockade announcement targeting Saudi-linked vessels around July 20 drove sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits that week.** Shipping data showed daily commodity ship crossings falling to averages near 31–33, with notable diversions, turnarounds, and slower speeds as carriers avoided the strait amid threats and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. This produced a weekly total well below the recent July average of roughly 40 vessels per day, reflecting immediate rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and reduced tanker and bulker activity. The 99% market-implied probability on fewer than 220 transits captures this rapid supply-chain adjustment, consistent with observed declines of 20–40% in the days following the escalation.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include final data revisions incorporating additional dark or sanctioned transits, or any last-minute confirmations of higher untracked movements that push the total into the 220–229 range.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$18,395Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 26, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 13, 2026, 11:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Heightened geopolitical risks from the Houthi naval blockade announcement targeting Saudi-linked vessels around July 20 drove sharp reductions in Bab el-Mandeb transits that week.** Shipping data showed daily commodity ship crossings falling to averages near 31–33, with notable diversions, turnarounds, and slower speeds as carriers avoided the strait amid threats and elevated war-risk insurance premiums. This produced a weekly total well below the recent July average of roughly 40 vessels per day, reflecting immediate rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and reduced tanker and bulker activity. The 99% market-implied probability on fewer than 220 transits captures this rapid supply-chain adjustment, consistent with observed declines of 20–40% in the days following the escalation. Realistic scenarios that could still shift the outcome include final data revisions incorporating additional dark or sanctioned transits, or any last-minute confirmations of higher untracked movements that push the total into the 220–229 range.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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