Ongoing Houthi threats and Red Sea security risks have kept most commercial vessels rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, suppressing Bab el-Mandeb transits to roughly 30-40 ships per day in late July 2026. Data from Kpler and Clarksons show daily crossings averaging near 31-41 vessels in the final week of the month, with weekly aggregates remaining well below pre-2024 norms of several hundred. This sustained diversion, driven by elevated insurance premiums and operational hazards, underpins the market-implied odds of under 220 total transits for the week of July 20. A durable ceasefire, expanded naval escorts, or sharp decline in attacks could lift volumes, though near-term resolution remains improbable given persistent regional tensions.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 20?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of July 20?
<220 100.0%
220-229 <1%
230-239 <1%
240-249 <1%
$18,776 Vol.
$18,776 Vol.
Jul 26, 2026
<220
Yes
220-229
No
230-239
No
240-249
No
250-259
No
260+
No
<220 100.0%
220-229 <1%
230-239 <1%
240-249 <1%
$18,776 Vol.
$18,776 Vol.
Jul 26, 2026
<220
$9,646 Vol.
Yes
220-229
$2,962 Vol.
No
230-239
$1,282 Vol.
No
240-249
$1,580 Vol.
No
250-259
$1,348 Vol.
No
260+
$1,957 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Ongoing Houthi threats and Red Sea security risks have kept most commercial vessels rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, suppressing Bab el-Mandeb transits to roughly 30-40 ships per day in late July 2026. Data from Kpler and Clarksons show daily crossings averaging near 31-41 vessels in the final week of the month, with weekly aggregates remaining well below pre-2024 norms of several hundred. This sustained diversion, driven by elevated insurance premiums and operational hazards, underpins the market-implied odds of under 220 total transits for the week of July 20. A durable ceasefire, expanded naval escorts, or sharp decline in attacks could lift volumes, though near-term resolution remains improbable given persistent regional tensions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 13, 2026, 11:14 PM ET
Volume
$18,776Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 26, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 13, 2026, 11:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Ongoing Houthi threats and Red Sea security risks have kept most commercial vessels rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, suppressing Bab el-Mandeb transits to roughly 30-40 ships per day in late July 2026. Data from Kpler and Clarksons show daily crossings averaging near 31-41 vessels in the final week of the month, with weekly aggregates remaining well below pre-2024 norms of several hundred. This sustained diversion, driven by elevated insurance premiums and operational hazards, underpins the market-implied odds of under 220 total transits for the week of July 20. A durable ceasefire, expanded naval escorts, or sharp decline in attacks could lift volumes, though near-term resolution remains improbable given persistent regional tensions.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from July 20, 2026, through July 26, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$18,776Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 26, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 13, 2026, 11:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Hasil diajukan: No
Tidak ada sengketa
Hasil akhir: No
Ongoing Houthi threats and Red Sea security risks have kept most commercial vessels rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, suppressing Bab el-Mandeb transits to roughly 30-40 ships per day in late July 2026. Data from Kpler and Clarksons show daily crossings averaging near 31-41 vessels in the final week of the month, with weekly aggregates remaining well below pre-2024 norms of several hundred. This sustained diversion, driven by elevated insurance premiums and operational hazards, underpins the market-implied odds of under 220 total transits for the week of July 20. A durable ceasefire, expanded naval escorts, or sharp decline in attacks could lift volumes, though near-term resolution remains improbable given persistent regional tensions.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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