Official AEMET forecasts and ensemble model runs position a daily maximum near 36°C as the most probable outcome for Madrid on August 5, driving the 55.5% market-implied odds on that threshold. Recent model consensus shows highs stabilizing in the mid-30s after July’s extreme heat dome, with steering patterns and limited Saharan air intrusion limiting further intensification. Trader sentiment incorporates typical forecast spread and observational uncertainty around peak afternoon readings, while 35°C and 37°C options capture plausible deviations from numerical guidance. Historical August averages near 33°C provide baseline context, though 2026’s above-normal seasonal temperatures support the elevated near-term outlook ahead of the next model update.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Madrid on August 5?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 5?
36°C 56%
35°C 30%
37°C 13%
34°C 2%
BARU
BARU
Aug 5, 2026
31°C or below
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C
2%
35°C
30%
36°C
56%
37°C
13%
38°C
1%
39°C
1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
36°C 56%
35°C 30%
37°C 13%
34°C 2%
BARU
BARU
Aug 5, 2026
31°C or below
$376 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$399 Vol.
1%
33°C
$413 Vol.
1%
34°C
$496 Vol.
2%
35°C
$1,242 Vol.
30%
36°C
$963 Vol.
56%
37°C
$918 Vol.
13%
38°C
$327 Vol.
1%
39°C
$205 Vol.
1%
40°C
$389 Vol.
<1%
41°C or higher
$245 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official AEMET forecasts and ensemble model runs position a daily maximum near 36°C as the most probable outcome for Madrid on August 5, driving the 55.5% market-implied odds on that threshold. Recent model consensus shows highs stabilizing in the mid-30s after July’s extreme heat dome, with steering patterns and limited Saharan air intrusion limiting further intensification. Trader sentiment incorporates typical forecast spread and observational uncertainty around peak afternoon readings, while 35°C and 37°C options capture plausible deviations from numerical guidance. Historical August averages near 33°C provide baseline context, though 2026’s above-normal seasonal temperatures support the elevated near-term outlook ahead of the next model update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$5,973Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 5, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official AEMET forecasts and ensemble model runs position a daily maximum near 36°C as the most probable outcome for Madrid on August 5, driving the 55.5% market-implied odds on that threshold. Recent model consensus shows highs stabilizing in the mid-30s after July’s extreme heat dome, with steering patterns and limited Saharan air intrusion limiting further intensification. Trader sentiment incorporates typical forecast spread and observational uncertainty around peak afternoon readings, while 35°C and 37°C options capture plausible deviations from numerical guidance. Historical August averages near 33°C provide baseline context, though 2026’s above-normal seasonal temperatures support the elevated near-term outlook ahead of the next model update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,973Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 5, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official AEMET forecasts and ensemble model runs position a daily maximum near 36°C as the most probable outcome for Madrid on August 5, driving the 55.5% market-implied odds on that threshold. Recent model consensus shows highs stabilizing in the mid-30s after July’s extreme heat dome, with steering patterns and limited Saharan air intrusion limiting further intensification. Trader sentiment incorporates typical forecast spread and observational uncertainty around peak afternoon readings, while 35°C and 37°C options capture plausible deviations from numerical guidance. Historical August averages near 33°C provide baseline context, though 2026’s above-normal seasonal temperatures support the elevated near-term outlook ahead of the next model update.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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