Traders assign a 98.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will not be abolished before 2027 due to the absence of viable legislative momentum. The Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act (H.R.1846) remains stalled in committee with no floor votes or advancement in the 119th Congress, reflecting entrenched procedural requirements for bicameral passage, presidential approval, and asset transfers to the Treasury. Broader debates center on Federal Reserve independence, appointments, and regulatory tweaks rather than outright elimination, consistent with historical patterns of institutional continuity. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden financial crisis prompting emergency reforms or unexpected congressional realignments enabling rapid bill movement before year-end 2026, though neither appears imminent.