Trader consensus pricing an 85.5% chance that Elon Musk does not sign the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30 stems primarily from his limited formal engagement with the July 2026 employee letter. That document, signed by over 1,300 staff from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind and Meta, calls for U.S.-backed international tools to moderate automated AI research acceleration and avoid capability outpacing control. Musk publicly endorsed Dario Amodei’s September 12 essay on pacing the frontier with the words “Dario is right,” and Sam Altman committed OpenAI to embedded evaluators, yet neither Musk nor xAI has attached a signature to the original statement. With only fifteen days remaining and no announced plans for formal endorsement, traders see little catalyst for a last-minute shift.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui15% peluang
BARU
BARU
Sep 30, 2026
15% peluang
BARU
BARU
Sep 30, 2026
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus pricing an 85.5% chance that Elon Musk does not sign the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30 stems primarily from his limited formal engagement with the July 2026 employee letter. That document, signed by over 1,300 staff from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind and Meta, calls for U.S.-backed international tools to moderate automated AI research acceleration and avoid capability outpacing control. Musk publicly endorsed Dario Amodei’s September 12 essay on pacing the frontier with the words “Dario is right,” and Sam Altman committed OpenAI to embedded evaluators, yet neither Musk nor xAI has attached a signature to the original statement. With only fifteen days remaining and no announced plans for formal endorsement, traders see little catalyst for a last-minute shift.
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$3,428Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus pricing an 85.5% chance that Elon Musk does not sign the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30 stems primarily from his limited formal engagement with the July 2026 employee letter. That document, signed by over 1,300 staff from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind and Meta, calls for U.S.-backed international tools to moderate automated AI research acceleration and avoid capability outpacing control. Musk publicly endorsed Dario Amodei’s September 12 essay on pacing the frontier with the words “Dario is right,” and Sam Altman committed OpenAI to embedded evaluators, yet neither Musk nor xAI has attached a signature to the original statement. With only fifteen days remaining and no announced plans for formal endorsement, traders see little catalyst for a last-minute shift.
In July 2026, employees of frontier AI companies published the "Pacing the Frontier" statement at pacingthefrontier.com, calling on the US government to support an international effort to develop tools to pace the frontier of automated AI development. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is listed as a signatory of the statement at pacingthefrontier.com, or publicly confirms through official channels that he has signed it, by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying listing must identify Elon Musk by name together with his role at SpaceXAI, or otherwise make clear that the signatory is the CEO of SpaceXAI. Once Elon Musk is listed or confirms signing, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether his name is later removed or the statement is later amended.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the signatory list at pacingthefrontier.com; however, official statements from Elon Musk or SpaceXAI and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,428Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 14, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus pricing an 85.5% chance that Elon Musk does not sign the Pacing the Frontier statement by September 30 stems primarily from his limited formal engagement with the July 2026 employee letter. That document, signed by over 1,300 staff from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind and Meta, calls for U.S.-backed international tools to moderate automated AI research acceleration and avoid capability outpacing control. Musk publicly endorsed Dario Amodei’s September 12 essay on pacing the frontier with the words “Dario is right,” and Sam Altman committed OpenAI to embedded evaluators, yet neither Musk nor xAI has attached a signature to the original statement. With only fifteen days remaining and no announced plans for formal endorsement, traders see little catalyst for a last-minute shift.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan