Recent acceleration in Russian inflation to 6.32% by late August, combined with faster lending growth and pro-inflationary pressures from an expanding budget deficit and fuel supply disruptions, has shaped trader expectations for the Bank of Russia's September 11 decision. Analysts surveyed by multiple outlets largely anticipate a hold at the current 14% key rate, citing the need for caution amid these risks and the central bank's updated forecasts showing a higher average rate path for 2026. A modest 25-basis-point cut remains possible but is viewed as less likely, while any increase appears remote given the absence of fresh overheating signals. These developments align with the market's emphasis on no change as the leading outcome.