The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other officials, underpins the 92.5% implied probability that it will not fall before 2027. Security forces maintained control through lethal crackdowns on subsequent protests, while elite cohesion enabled rapid succession and renewed institutional pledges without fragmentation or widespread defections. As of August 2026, the regime continues diplomatic engagement on the Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire frictions and has tightened internal security through arrests and public space restrictions. Traders view these factors, alongside historical patterns of regime endurance despite economic pressures and unrest, as strong evidence of continuity through year-end. Late escalations or major internal upheaval remain possible but appear low-probability catalysts within the timeframe.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
8% संभावना
$25,242,706 वॉल्यूम
$25,242,706 वॉल्यूम
30 दिस, 2026
हाँ
8% संभावना
$25,242,706 वॉल्यूम
$25,242,706 वॉल्यूम
30 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other officials, underpins the 92.5% implied probability that it will not fall before 2027. Security forces maintained control through lethal crackdowns on subsequent protests, while elite cohesion enabled rapid succession and renewed institutional pledges without fragmentation or widespread defections. As of August 2026, the regime continues diplomatic engagement on the Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire frictions and has tightened internal security through arrests and public space restrictions. Traders view these factors, alongside historical patterns of regime endurance despite economic pressures and unrest, as strong evidence of continuity through year-end. Late escalations or major internal upheaval remain possible but appear low-probability catalysts within the timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$25,242,706समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other officials, underpins the 92.5% implied probability that it will not fall before 2027. Security forces maintained control through lethal crackdowns on subsequent protests, while elite cohesion enabled rapid succession and renewed institutional pledges without fragmentation or widespread defections. As of August 2026, the regime continues diplomatic engagement on the Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire frictions and has tightened internal security through arrests and public space restrictions. Traders view these factors, alongside historical patterns of regime endurance despite economic pressures and unrest, as strong evidence of continuity through year-end. Late escalations or major internal upheaval remain possible but appear low-probability catalysts within the timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$25,242,706समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience after U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026, which killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other officials, underpins the 92.5% implied probability that it will not fall before 2027. Security forces maintained control through lethal crackdowns on subsequent protests, while elite cohesion enabled rapid succession and renewed institutional pledges without fragmentation or widespread defections. As of August 2026, the regime continues diplomatic engagement on the Strait of Hormuz amid ceasefire frictions and has tightened internal security through arrests and public space restrictions. Traders view these factors, alongside historical patterns of regime endurance despite economic pressures and unrest, as strong evidence of continuity through year-end. Late escalations or major internal upheaval remain possible but appear low-probability catalysts within the timeframe.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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