The 99% trader consensus against regime collapse by September 30 stems from the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated structural resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Swift succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, minimal elite defections, and rapid consolidation of IRGC influence preserved core institutions and security apparatus despite economic strain and prior unrest. Recent diplomatic steps, including a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding and talks on sanctions relief and maritime issues, further signal continuity rather than breakdown. Within the narrow remaining window, major barriers include loyal security forces, ongoing repression capacity, and absence of coordinated opposition poised for immediate success. Only an unforeseen cascade—such as sudden leadership incapacitation combined with widespread elite fracture or external escalation—could realistically shift outcomes before the deadline.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या 30 सितंबर तक ईरानी शासन गिर जाएगा?
क्या 30 सितंबर तक ईरानी शासन गिर जाएगा?
हाँ
1% संभावना
$1,988,380 वॉल्यूम
$1,988,380 वॉल्यूम
30 सित, 2026
हाँ
1% संभावना
$1,988,380 वॉल्यूम
$1,988,380 वॉल्यूम
30 सित, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The 99% trader consensus against regime collapse by September 30 stems from the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated structural resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Swift succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, minimal elite defections, and rapid consolidation of IRGC influence preserved core institutions and security apparatus despite economic strain and prior unrest. Recent diplomatic steps, including a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding and talks on sanctions relief and maritime issues, further signal continuity rather than breakdown. Within the narrow remaining window, major barriers include loyal security forces, ongoing repression capacity, and absence of coordinated opposition poised for immediate success. Only an unforeseen cascade—such as sudden leadership incapacitation combined with widespread elite fracture or external escalation—could realistically shift outcomes before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,988,380समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The 99% trader consensus against regime collapse by September 30 stems from the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated structural resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Swift succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, minimal elite defections, and rapid consolidation of IRGC influence preserved core institutions and security apparatus despite economic strain and prior unrest. Recent diplomatic steps, including a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding and talks on sanctions relief and maritime issues, further signal continuity rather than breakdown. Within the narrow remaining window, major barriers include loyal security forces, ongoing repression capacity, and absence of coordinated opposition poised for immediate success. Only an unforeseen cascade—such as sudden leadership incapacitation combined with widespread elite fracture or external escalation—could realistically shift outcomes before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$1,988,380समाप्ति तिथि
1 अक्टू, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x65070BE91...The 99% trader consensus against regime collapse by September 30 stems from the Islamic Republic’s demonstrated structural resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Swift succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, minimal elite defections, and rapid consolidation of IRGC influence preserved core institutions and security apparatus despite economic strain and prior unrest. Recent diplomatic steps, including a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding and talks on sanctions relief and maritime issues, further signal continuity rather than breakdown. Within the narrow remaining window, major barriers include loyal security forces, ongoing repression capacity, and absence of coordinated opposition poised for immediate success. Only an unforeseen cascade—such as sudden leadership incapacitation combined with widespread elite fracture or external escalation—could realistically shift outcomes before the deadline.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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