Recent JTWC analyses show Super Typhoon Dolphin, currently a Category 4–5 system with 1-minute sustained winds near 240 km/h, undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle that has already prompted slight weakening while maintaining violent typhoon status per JMA. Forecast models project further intensity loss from land interaction, increasing shear, or cooler waters before any potential western Pacific or Japan landfall, making Category 4+ arrival at the coast unlikely. Warm sea-surface temperatures support short-term maintenance, yet steering patterns and historical analogs for similar recurving tracks favor rapid decay near land. These dynamics underpin the 90% market-implied probability traders assign to “No,” with resolution hinging on official intensity thresholds at the moment of landfall.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाक्या सुपर टाइफून डॉल्फिन श्रेणी 4 की ताकत या उससे अधिक पर लैंडफॉल करेगा?
क्या सुपर टाइफून डॉल्फिन श्रेणी 4 की ताकत या उससे अधिक पर लैंडफॉल करेगा?
हाँ
नया
नया
16 अग, 2026
हाँ
नया
नया
16 अग, 2026
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Recent JTWC analyses show Super Typhoon Dolphin, currently a Category 4–5 system with 1-minute sustained winds near 240 km/h, undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle that has already prompted slight weakening while maintaining violent typhoon status per JMA. Forecast models project further intensity loss from land interaction, increasing shear, or cooler waters before any potential western Pacific or Japan landfall, making Category 4+ arrival at the coast unlikely. Warm sea-surface temperatures support short-term maintenance, yet steering patterns and historical analogs for similar recurving tracks favor rapid decay near land. These dynamics underpin the 90% market-implied probability traders assign to “No,” with resolution hinging on official intensity thresholds at the moment of landfall.
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$25बाज़ार खुला
Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Recent JTWC analyses show Super Typhoon Dolphin, currently a Category 4–5 system with 1-minute sustained winds near 240 km/h, undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle that has already prompted slight weakening while maintaining violent typhoon status per JMA. Forecast models project further intensity loss from land interaction, increasing shear, or cooler waters before any potential western Pacific or Japan landfall, making Category 4+ arrival at the coast unlikely. Warm sea-surface temperatures support short-term maintenance, yet steering patterns and historical analogs for similar recurving tracks favor rapid decay near land. These dynamics underpin the 90% market-implied probability traders assign to “No,” with resolution hinging on official intensity thresholds at the moment of landfall.
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
वॉल्यूम
$25समाप्ति तिथि
16 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent JTWC analyses show Super Typhoon Dolphin, currently a Category 4–5 system with 1-minute sustained winds near 240 km/h, undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle that has already prompted slight weakening while maintaining violent typhoon status per JMA. Forecast models project further intensity loss from land interaction, increasing shear, or cooler waters before any potential western Pacific or Japan landfall, making Category 4+ arrival at the coast unlikely. Warm sea-surface temperatures support short-term maintenance, yet steering patterns and historical analogs for similar recurving tracks favor rapid decay near land. These dynamics underpin the 90% market-implied probability traders assign to “No,” with resolution hinging on official intensity thresholds at the moment of landfall.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न